# Iran capitalizes on Trump's inconsistency Experts say Iran is skillfully exploiting US vulnerabilities - **Source:** [Fortune | FORTUNE](https://brifing.si/source/769282ef-327a-4454-909a-3c7936216004) - **Published:** 2026-08-02 - **Topic:** [Business](https://brifing.si/c/business) - **Original article:** - **On Brifing:** https://brifing.si/s/02ef33f5-bcaf-414e-b6c6-e069205bea9d ## Trump's indecisive policy President Trump threatened a large-scale attack on Iran but then stepped back. Experts note this inconsistent behavior has strengthened Iran's hand. Despite calls for diplomatic solutions, Trump's approval ratings are dropping both on economy and Iran policy. With midterm elections approaching, Iran appears to be trying to exploit this political vulnerability in Washington. ## Hormuz Strait threat Through Houthi rebels, Iran is spreading the conflict by threatening ships in the Red Sea. Vessels attempting to bypass Hormuz via Bab el-Mandeb Strait are being targeted. This move demonstrates Iran's ability to control maritime trade routes. Experts warn closure of this critical waterway, which carries 20% of global energy supply, would hit world economies hard. ## Long-range missile display Iran tested long-range missiles capable of penetrating US defense systems, sending a message to neighbors. Gulf countries received warnings of becoming bombardment targets. This development signals shifting power balance in Iran's favor. Defense analysts note Iran's missile tech advances are disrupting regional equilibrium. ## Mutual deterrence achieved Former Israeli intelligence officer Citrinowicz states Iran has successfully created mutual deterrence. This directly impacts Washington's calculations. Iran's asymmetric warfare tactics increase its capacity to hold global economy hostage. Threats to energy infrastructure particularly limit US military options. ## Saudi mediation efforts Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman directly communicated with Trump expressing concerns about planned strikes on Iran. The Defense Minister had conveyed similar messages earlier. These diplomatic efforts reflect attempts to reduce regional tensions. However, Tehran openly states readiness to exploit Trump's political weakness. ## Critical defense gap US and allies face severe shortages in missile defense systems needed to repel Iranian attacks. This leaves energy infrastructure vulnerable. Protection of critical facilities like oil refineries and gas plants is becoming increasingly difficult. Defense experts warn replenishing stocks could take months. ## Global energy markets alarmed Analysts report crude oil and refined product inventories have reached dangerous lows. Warnings suggest 'tank bottoms' will be hit unless Hormuz reopens soon. This could trigger sudden price spikes worldwide. Energy importers in Europe and Asia face particularly serious risks. ## Strategic balance shifting Despite heavy initial war losses, Iran now holds strategic advantage. Its ability to threaten maritime routes gives it global economic leverage. Despite US military superiority, Iran's asymmetric tactics challenge Washington. Experts warn this could permanently alter Middle East power dynamics. ## Sources covering this story - https://fortune.com/2026/08/02/trump-iran-war-strategic-advantage-oil-saudi-arabia-strait-of-hormuz/ — --- _Summary written by Brifing from the original reporting. Copyright in the original article belongs to its publisher; read the full piece at the link above._