# Polish Central Bank Holds Rates Amidst Inflation and Economic Uncertainty The Monetary Policy Council maintains current interest rates while signaling potential future adjustments. - **Source:** [Bankier.pl](https://www.bankier.pl) - **Published:** 2026-11-04 - **Topic:** [Finance](https://brifing.si/c/finance) - **Original article:** - **On Brifing:** https://brifing.si/s/05b03945-0226-4501-887b-f3568a3eec64 ## Monetary Policy Stagnation The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) decided to maintain interest rates at their current levels during the November 2026 session. This decision keeps borrowing costs at their lowest point in over four years. Most economists anticipated this outcome, noting that the RPP rarely implements interest rate changes during the month of December. ## Inflation Dynamics and VAT October CPI inflation dropped to 3.5% from 4.1% in September, largely driven by temporary VAT reductions on fuels. Despite this decline, the figure remains above the National Bank of Poland's 2.5% target. Projections suggest inflation will likely persist between 3.5% and 4.0% through the end of 2026, potentially rising thereafter. ## Governor Glapiński's Caution NBP Governor Adam Glapiński emphasized that the period of elevated inflation is not over. He highlighted that global commodity prices, influenced by Middle East conflicts, remain a significant risk factor. While core inflation has shown signs of softening, the central bank remains vigilant regarding the potential pass-through of energy costs. ## Uncertainty Over January Governor Glapiński explicitly stated that there is a significant question mark regarding monetary policy for January 2027. The council remains divided, with discussions described as heated. Future decisions will depend heavily on incoming data, specifically regarding global energy markets and domestic regulatory actions that impact fuel and energy prices. ## Economic Growth Risks The NBP projects a potential slowdown in GDP growth for 2027. This deceleration is linked to a reduction in investment impulses from European Union funds, including the National Recovery Plan. Furthermore, weak economic performance in Germany and the broader Eurozone poses additional risks to Poland's primary export-oriented trade partnerships. ## Mortgage Market Impacts Anticipation of future rate hikes is already affecting the mortgage market. Data indicates that fixed-rate mortgage offers are currently nearly 1 percentage point higher than variable-rate options. For a 500,000 PLN loan, this gap can result in monthly payments being approximately 315 PLN higher for borrowers choosing fixed-rate security. ## Real Interest Rate Shift Poland's monetary policy has transitioned from moderately restrictive to mildly expansive. As of September, the reference rate fell below the CPI inflation rate for the first time since early 2024. Real interest rates, calculated ex-post, remain near zero, a condition expected to persist as long as inflation stays above the target. ## Future Policy Outlook The RPP maintains readiness to act if inflationary risks escalate, promising not to delay necessary interventions. The upcoming December meeting will be the final decision-making session of 2026. Market analysts continue to monitor FRA contract fluctuations, which reflect a non-zero probability of future rate hikes to combat persistent price pressures. ## Sources covering this story - [Bankier.pl — Polish Central Bank Maintains Interest Rates Despite Persistent Inflation](https://www.bankier.pl/wiadomosc/Inflacja-ponad-celem-a-stopy-bez-zmian-RPP-nie-zmienia-zdania-9223461.html?utm_source=RSS&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=Wiadomosci) - [Polsat News — NBP Governor Signals Uncertainty Over Future Polish Interest Rate Policy](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2026-11-05/ceny-znowu-pojda-ostro-w-gore-prezes-nbp-o-decydujacym-miesiacu-dla-inflacji/) - [TVN24 — Interest Rate Hike Risks and Mortgage Repayment Impacts](https://tvn24.pl/biznes/pieniadze/stopy-procentowe-w-polsce-jak-zmienia-sie-raty-kredytow-podwyzki-nawet-o-315-zlotych-st9322508?source=rss) --- _Summary written by Brifing from the original reporting. Copyright in the original article belongs to its publisher; read the full piece at the link above._