# Regional Powers Vie for Influence in Ethiopia’s Tigray Conflict External actors fuel instability in the Horn of Africa through complex proxy alliances. - **Source:** [Middle East Eye](https://www.middleeasteye.net) - **Published:** 2026-11-10 - **Topic:** [world](https://brifing.si/c/world) - **Original article:** - **On Brifing:** https://brifing.si/s/09a28308-609a-4ac6-bedb-9730b42fbb07 ## Resurgence of Tigray Conflict Hostilities in Ethiopia's Tigray region escalated in September 2026 after the TPLF formed a new coalition, the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Coalition for Survival. This group aims to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. While federal forces quickly regained control of Mekelle, the rebels maintain a vow to continue their armed insurgency. ## Historical Context of TPLF Founded in 1975, the TPLF dominated Ethiopian politics for 27 years after overthrowing the previous military regime. Their rule ended in 2018 following widespread protests. The group’s subsequent defiance of federal authority and regional election mandates triggered the brutal 2020-22 civil war, which resulted in hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths. ## Fragility of Pretoria Agreement The 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended the initial civil war, has effectively collapsed. Key provisions, including TPLF disarmament and the return of displaced populations, remain unimplemented. Internal power struggles within the TPLF further destabilized the region, leading to the formal declaration that the peace deal is dead as of July 2026. ## Eritrea’s Strategic Pivot Eritrea has shifted from an ally of Prime Minister Abiy to a suspected backer of the TPLF. This reversal stems from escalating tensions over Ethiopia’s desire for Red Sea maritime access. The two nations severed diplomatic ties in October 2026, marking a dramatic breakdown in the relationship that once earned Abiy a Nobel Prize. ## UAE’s Economic and Military Role The UAE maintains strong ties with Ethiopia, investing billions in manufacturing and logistics since 2018. Abu Dhabi has historically provided military support, including drones, to the Ethiopian government. Both nations collaborate on regional infrastructure projects in Somaliland, aiming to expand their collective influence over critical Red Sea trade routes and maritime security. ## Sudan’s Complex Border Tensions Relations between Ethiopia and Sudan are strained by mutual accusations of supporting opposing factions in their respective internal conflicts. Ethiopia alleges Sudan backs the TPLF, while Khartoum accuses Addis Ababa of assisting the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces. Satellite imagery has linked Ethiopian military bases to the movement of supplies for the Sudanese paramilitaries. ## Egypt’s Geopolitical Rivalry Egypt and Ethiopia remain locked in a long-standing regional rivalry, primarily driven by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Cairo views the $5 billion project as a national security threat due to potential Nile water reduction. Egypt has subsequently strengthened ties with Eritrea, aligning with regional actors concerned by Ethiopia’s growing maritime ambitions. ## Saudi Arabia’s Emerging Stance Saudi Arabia has increasingly aligned with Eritrea, a move encouraged by Egyptian diplomacy. While Riyadh has not officially commented on the current Tigray conflict, its support for the Sudanese Armed Forces contrasts with the UAE’s backing of the RSF. This creates a complex web of competing regional interests across the Horn. ## The Red Sea Power Struggle The Horn of Africa has become a theater for broader regional competition. The UAE, Egypt, and Sudan are maneuvering to secure their interests in the Red Sea, a vital global shipping corridor. Ethiopia’s landlocked status and desire for port access remain the primary catalyst for these shifting, often contradictory, international alliances. ## Future Regional Implications The escalation in Tigray threatens to destabilize the entire Horn of Africa. With multiple nations providing varying levels of support to opposing sides, the conflict risks evolving into a wider regional war. Observers must monitor diplomatic shifts between Ethiopia and its neighbors, as these will determine the long-term viability of regional peace. ## Sources covering this story - https://www.middleeasteye.net/explainers/tigray-ethiopia-conflict-uae-sudan-egypt — --- _Summary written by Brifing from the original reporting. Copyright in the original article belongs to its publisher; read the full piece at the link above._