Nouriel Roubini: AI revolution will mandate universal basic income
Economist Roubini predicts socialism or basic income as AI displaces workforce.
1Dr. Doom's optimistic forecast
Economist Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 crisis, argues the AI revolution will be humanity's greatest technological shift. Predicting 6% growth by 2040 and 10% by 2050, Roubini stresses even this optimistic scenario will require radical solutions.
2Labor market earthquake
Roubini believes AI and robots will replace most of the population within 20-25 years. Traditional solutions like raising retirement age will prove inadequate. OpenAI CEO Altman's temporarily supported universal basic income idea is back on the agenda.
3Government's new role
The economist proposes governments tax 'winners' to redistribute resources. Roubini outlines two approaches: Either universal basic income (ex-post) or a form of socialism where governments seize shares of big tech companies (ex-ante).
4Concessions from tech giants
Per Financial Times, OpenAI discussed giving 5% equity to governments so the public shares AI's benefits. Roubini thinks this model could spread if other AI companies follow suit, though US rivals' willingness remains unclear.
5Parallels with Musk's vision
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk also predicts work becoming optional within 20 years. Aligning with Roubini's 'machines doing all work' scenario, this suggests shared concerns among tech leaders about AI's disruptive potential.
6Inevitable transformation
Roubini emphasizes that universal basic income or socialism - options already under UK consideration - are inevitable. Managing AI's disruptive effects will require new global social contracts, according to these forecasts.
Original article: Fortune — Nouriel Roubini: AI devrimi evrensel temel geliri zorunlu kılacak