# Mental Models That Transform Thinking | Bill Gurley Systems thinking and models shaping the future. - **Source:** [Farnam Street](https://fs.blog) - **Published:** 2026-06-04 - **Topic:** [Leadership](https://brifing.si/c/leadership) - **Original article:** - **On Brifing:** https://brifing.si/s/0ff84fa7-9c1f-4ebf-bd10-6d53ba7d9255 ## Who is Bill Gurley? Bill Gurley built his career as a partner at Benchmark after years on Wall Street. He played a key role during Uber's hypergrowth era and now studies complexity and systems thinking at the Santa Fe Institute. ## What is Systems Thinking? Systems thinking involves understanding the interaction of multiple variables. Gurley emphasizes that this approach differs from linear models and makes predicting the future easier. ## Second- and Third-Order Effects Gurley highlights the importance of considering not just the immediate effects of decisions but also their second- and third-order impacts. This leads to more robust strategies in complex systems. ## The Importance of History and Technology Success lies at the intersection of historical knowledge and technological innovation. Gurley argues that learning history and exploring technological frontiers are critical in any field. ## The Power of Storytelling Gurley emphasizes the importance of storytelling for products and ideas. A good story makes complex ideas understandable and facilitates effective communication. ## Looking to the Future Gurley shares insights on the future of open source, China, stablecoins, and payment systems. These areas could be at the center of future innovations. ## Sources covering this story - https://fs.blog/knowledge-project-podcast/bill-gurley/ — --- _Summary written by Brifing from the original reporting. Copyright in the original article belongs to its publisher; read the full piece at the link above._