# Weak US Employment and $1.1B ETF Inflows: Wintermute on New Rally and Inflation Risks Analysis of growing interest in crypto ETFs and inflation risks in the market. - **Source:** [INCRYPTED](https://brifing.si/source/7cd4625d-3f08-4cc1-983d-4c7d991839ba) - **Published:** 2026-08-11 - **Topic:** [Finance](https://brifing.si/c/finance) - **Original article:** - **On Brifing:** https://brifing.si/s/1289182b-d7f6-451d-a6a7-2dbbd1bb6945 ## Strong ETF Demand US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracted a total of $1.1 billion in the past week. Bitcoin ETFs gathered $853.5 million, marking their best weekly performance since mid-April. Ethereum ETFs added $244.9 million, extending gains for the fifth consecutive week. Over 80% of inflows went to BlackRock. However, trading volumes remained relatively subdued, suggesting large investors are building positions rather than short-term capital rotation. ## Employment Data Impact US employment fell by 23,000 in July versus expectations of an 80,000 increase. This weak data reduced September Fed rate hike probability from 55% to 40%. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.6%. Wintermute analysts noted weak labor markets support arguments for looser monetary policy. However, August 12 CPI data remains crucial for market direction. ## Inflation Risk Factors Higher-than-expected inflation could push September rate hike probability back above 50%. Wintermute warns this might reverse the recent rally in risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin rose above $65,300 after jobs data but failed to significantly outperform traditional risk assets, indicating balanced ETF demand and seller supply. ## Institutional Investor Activity While ETF demand recovery is positive, Wintermute cautions one week's data doesn't confirm a sustainable trend. Analysts want to observe whether ETF inflows and Bitcoin reserve company activity persist through summer's end. Markets remain highly sensitive to macroeconomic indicators in the current climate. ## Blockchain Infrastructure Investments Wells Fargo plans to launch tokenized deposit services for corporate clients this fall, initially creating a USD-GBP corridor. Wintermute notes banks are primarily using blockchain to modernize payment infrastructure rather than integrating crypto assets directly. Such developments could gradually increase institutional adoption of digital assets. ## Regulatory Uncertainty US regulatory environment continues to significantly impact crypto markets. While ETF demand recovery is encouraging, Wintermute believes market sensitivity will persist until regulatory clarity emerges. Inflation data and Fed policies remain key short-term market drivers amid current uncertainties. ## Market Dynamics Bitcoin price struggles to gain momentum despite substantial ETF inflows. Wintermute interprets this as balance between ETF demand and seller supply. Market observations suggest large players are making strategic investments rather than short-term capital rotations, indicating longer-term position building. ## Mid-Term Outlook Crypto markets face critical junctures. Weak employment data boosts loose policy expectations while inflation risks linger. Growing institutional interest in blockchain infrastructure and ETFs may support market maturation long-term. However, macroeconomic indicators will likely dominate short-term price action as markets navigate uncertain conditions. ## Sources covering this story - https://incrypted.com/slabaya-zanyatost-v-ssha-i-11-mlrd-v-etf-wintermute-o-novom-ralli-i-riskah-inflyacii/ — --- _Summary written by Brifing from the original reporting. Copyright in the original article belongs to its publisher; read the full piece at the link above._