# Fossil fuel-dependent agriculture drives up food prices Record fertilizer price spikes challenge farmers and consumers globally - **Source:** [MIT Technology Review](https://www.technologyreview.com) - **Published:** 2026-09-03 - **Topic:** [Business](https://brifing.si/c/business) - **Original article:** - **On Brifing:** https://brifing.si/s/19d2047d-f201-4561-9bb9-507e77901de6 ## Impact of fossil fuel crisis on agriculture Conflicts in Iran and rising natural gas prices have pushed fertilizer production costs to record levels. Natural gas serves as both an energy source and chemical input in ammonia production. A third of global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has seen disruptions due to conflicts. World Bank reports indicate this particularly affects fertilizer access in poorest nations, creating supply chain vulnerabilities in global food production. ## Historic price volatility Urea fertilizer prices peaked at over $850 per metric ton in April - 80% higher than pre-conflict levels and nearing records set during Russia-Ukraine war. While prices have moderated slightly, uncertainty persists. Damage has occurred at 31 ammonia plants in Middle East and 20 in Russia in recent years, creating long-term production constraints that continue to impact global markets and agricultural input costs worldwide. ## Farmer profitability crisis Fertilizer price spikes severely impact farmers operating on thin margins, notes Switch Bioworks CEO Tim Schnabel. These cost increases ultimately translate to higher food prices for consumers. Compounding the challenge, farmers also face extreme diesel price fluctuations. Experts warn food prices will remain tied to energy costs as long as agriculture relies on fossil fuel-based fertilizers, creating systemic vulnerability in global food systems. ## Microbial alternatives emerge Companies like Pivot Bio and Switch Bioworks are developing fertilizers using gene-edited microbes that don't require natural gas inputs. Pivot Bio's CTO Travis Frey explains they increased production when Iran conflict began, offering farmers three-year price locks. Current microbial products can replace about 25% of synthetic fertilizer use, with companies targeting 40-50% replacement rates in near future through continued innovation in agricultural biotechnology. ## Industry outlook and projections CoBank analysts project some fertilizer prices may remain elevated through at least 2028 due to structural damage to production capacity. Pivot Bio claims its products are currently cost-competitive with chemical fertilizers. While microbial solutions show promise, experts caution that complete decoupling from fossil fuels will require scaling alternative technologies and reimagining agricultural inputs for sustainable food production systems. ## Climate change implications Fertilizer production accounts for roughly 2% of global greenhouse gas emissions, making alternative technologies crucial for climate mitigation. Microbial fertilizers offer dual benefits of price stability and reduced carbon footprint. Agricultural experts emphasize the urgent need to transition away from fossil fuel dependence in farming practices to meet climate targets while ensuring long-term food security in changing environmental conditions. ## Supply chain instability Pivot Bio CTO Travis Frey describes current supply chain volatility as unprecedented. Strait of Hormuz disruptions threaten global fertilizer distribution, echoing crisis conditions during Russia-Ukraine war. This instability creates systemic risks for food security worldwide, particularly impacting regions dependent on fertilizer imports. Experts warn such vulnerabilities will persist until agriculture reduces dependence on geopolitically sensitive fossil fuel inputs. ## Path to sustainable agriculture Switch Bioworks CEO Schnabel argues fossil fuel dependence in food production prevents building sustainable societies. While microbial fertilizers show promise in breaking this cycle, experts note wider adoption requires further research and investment. The agricultural sector faces pressing need to transition toward renewable input systems, with microbial technologies representing one pathway toward decarbonized and more resilient food production models. ## Sources covering this story - https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/09/03/1143320/fertilizer-prices-fossil-fuels/ — --- _Summary written by Brifing from the original reporting. Copyright in the original article belongs to its publisher; read the full piece at the link above._