XRP Faces Critical Support Tests Amid Bearish Momentum and Volatility
Technical indicators and market data reveal a struggle between potential recovery and further downside.
1Current Market Structure
XRP is currently navigating a descending price channel, with recent attempts to break above the $1.30–$1.34 supply zone failing. The asset has retreated toward $1.16 after losing the $1.24–$1.28 support area. Sellers maintain control, and the market is now closely monitoring the next major demand zones near $1.09–$1.14.
2Oversold RSI Signals
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has flashed a reading of 24, indicating a deeply oversold condition. Historically, such levels suggest the asset is undervalued against the broader market. Research indicates that in 70.6% of observed cases, XRP finished higher after 90 days when entering this specific oversold territory during the study period.
3Key Resistance Thresholds
For bulls to regain momentum, a daily close above $1.25 is considered essential to invalidate the current bearish trend. Analysts note that reclaiming the $1.24–$1.28 region is necessary to ease immediate downside pressure. Without this, the asset remains vulnerable to further selling, keeping the $1.00 psychological support level in focus.
4Leverage and Liquidation
The futures market has experienced significant volatility, with $38.8 million in long positions liquidated out of $40.24 million total liquidations. This flush-out has shifted the long-versus-short ratio, with short-sellers now outnumbering bulls at 0.89. Trading volume spiked by 193%, reaching $3.90 billion as participants reacted to the rapid price movements.
5Whale Sentiment Divergence
While wallets holding at least 1 million XRP reached a 2026 high, smaller time-frame data shows divided sentiment among top-tier investors. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has dipped below zero, moving from -0.09 to -0.17 on one-hour and four-hour charts, suggesting that many large holders are currently distributing or selling their positions.
6Downside Risk Scenarios
If the price fails to sustain support above $1.09, it risks a deeper correction toward the $0.99–$1.03 demand bubble. This range aligns with August 2026 lows. Analysts suggest that a final downward wick to retest these levels is possible, mirroring structural patterns observed during the 2024–2025 bull rally before any potential rebound.
7Technical Recovery Requirements
A meaningful recovery requires volume on up days to overtake volume on down days, alongside a daily close above $1.18. Overcoming recent lower highs in the $1.18–$1.20 range is the first step to gaining traction. Such a move would be necessary to challenge the upper boundaries of the current descending channel.
8Long-Term Speculative Outlook
Some analysts maintain a long-term speculative target of $17.60, contingent on historical fractals repeating. However, this theory remains valid only if the price avoids falling below $1.00. Investors are advised to watch for a combination of volume shifts and price stabilization above key resistance levels to confirm a structural trend reversal.
Original article: DailyCoin — XRP Faces Critical Support Tests Amid Bearish Momentum and Volatility