# Rental Market Instability Risks One Million Households by 2029 Expiration of extraordinary rental protections could force millions into severe housing cost burdens. - **Source:** [elDiario.es](https://www.eldiario.es) - **Published:** 2026-11-12 - **Topic:** [Business](https://brifing.si/c/business) - **Original article:** - **On Brifing:** https://brifing.si/s/26a014d9-263f-47be-a171-a9a62cd4f71d ## Impending Rental Market Crisis The expiration of extraordinary rental extensions by late 2028 threatens to leave one million additional people in Spain facing severe housing cost burdens. Currently, 2.3 million tenants spend over 30% of their income on rent. Projections indicate this figure could rise to 3.3 million as contracts expire and market prices reset. ## Legislative Protection Gaps A proposed second decree featuring indefinite extensions was recently rejected by authorities. This measure would have limited rent increases to the Consumer Price Index, providing a buffer against market volatility. Without this mechanism, tenants face significant exposure to price hikes when their current extraordinary extensions conclude at the end of 2028. ## Projected Financial Impact Oxfam estimates that while current contract renewals might face price increases of 31% compared to 2022 levels, this could reach 48% by 2029. These calculations assume household income grows by 3% annually, yet rent hikes are expected to outpace this growth, pushing millions into a state of financial overextension regarding housing costs. ## Regional Economic Disparities The impact varies significantly across Spanish regions due to local market conditions. For instance, Catalonia currently benefits from rent caps, though these are set to expire in 2027. With 440,000 contracts expiring in that region alone, affecting 1.1 million people, the future stability of these households remains highly dependent on upcoming government policy. ## Savings From Current Extensions The recently approved extraordinary extension provides immediate relief to 1.9 million contracts and 5 million people. This measure results in a median annual saving of 4,341 euros per household, or 358 euros monthly. These protections are vital for maintaining current living standards while the broader housing market remains under significant upward pressure. ## Geographic Variations in Relief Savings from the current extension are unevenly distributed across the country. Households in Malaga could save up to 10,625 euros, while those in the Balearic Islands see median savings of 10,090 euros. Conversely, regions like Cordoba and Lugo show lower median savings, reflecting the diverse cost-of-living structures existing within the national rental market. ## Contract Renewal Vulnerability Between 2025 and 2028, a large volume of five-year contracts signed during the 2021-2023 period will reach their expiration dates. This creates a massive wave of potential renewals occurring simultaneously. Without further legislative intervention, these tenants will be forced to negotiate new terms in a market environment characterized by high price appreciation. ## Policy Uncertainty and Future The long-term outlook for Spanish tenants depends on whether the government maintains or repeals the current Housing Law. With critical variables like rent caps expiring in 2027, the path toward 2029 remains uncertain. Policymakers must decide whether to extend protections or allow market forces to dictate future rental costs for millions. ## Sources covering this story - https://www.eldiario.es/economia/rechazo-prorrogas-indefinidas-amenaza-estabilidad-economica-millon-inquilinas-2029_1_13658415.html — --- _Summary written by Brifing from the original reporting. Copyright in the original article belongs to its publisher; read the full piece at the link above._