Apple Poised to Dominate Foldable Phone Market by 2026
Counterpoint predicts Apple will capture 25% market share this year, potentially leading by 2025.
1Market Projections
Counterpoint Research forecasts foldable phone shipments will exceed 100 million units this year, with Apple's iPhone Ultra driving significant growth. The segment currently represents just 2% of total smartphone sales but is projected to grow 24% in 2024 and 37% in 2025. Apple is expected to capture 25% market share immediately upon entry, potentially becoming the market leader by 2025.
2Competitive Landscape
Samsung currently leads with 38% market share, followed by Huawei at 22%. Apple's rapid ascent could reshape the competitive dynamics. Other players like Xiaomi, Motorola, and Google are also launching new models. Xiaomi's 18 Fold, featuring a similar book-style design to Apple's Ultra, launched strategically just before Apple's event.
3Apple's Entry Strategy
Apple will enter the market with an aggressive push, targeting 6 million foldable iPhone shipments in 2026. The company's brand power and ecosystem integration could accelerate adoption. Counterpoint notes Apple may achieve 40% market share after its first full year of sales, doubling initial shipments.
4Product Timeline
The iPhone Ultra leaks emerged in late August 2023, with Xiaomi's competing 18 Fold launching just before Apple's September event. This timing suggests manufacturers are closely tracking Apple's moves. The foldable market is entering a critical phase with back-to-back flagship launches.
5Market Expansion
Foldables are transitioning from niche to mainstream, with 2024 marking an inflection point. The technology appeals to premium smartphone buyers seeking innovation. As prices decrease and durability improves, adoption rates are expected to surge across all demographics.
6Design Convergence
Manufacturers are standardizing on book-style foldable designs, as seen in both Apple's Ultra and Xiaomi's 18 Fold. This format offers optimal screen real estate while maintaining portability. The similarity in form factors indicates industry consensus on the most practical foldable implementation.
7Supply Chain Impact
Apple's entry will significantly boost component suppliers specializing in flexible displays and hinges. The company's massive order volumes could drive down production costs industry-wide. This may enable more affordable foldable options from competitors in coming years.
8Industry Implications
Apple's rapid market capture demonstrates its unique ability to redefine product categories. The foldable transition represents the most significant smartphone design evolution since the notch. Success in this segment could cement Apple's innovation leadership for another decade.
Original article: 9to5Mac — Apple Poised to Dominate Foldable Phone Market by 2026