Foldable iPhones to dominate market within a decade, predicts analyst
Apple expected to capture 40% of rapidly growing foldable smartphone segment.
1The foldable revolution begins
Bloomberg's Mark Gurman predicts the iPhone Duo marks just the start of Apple's foldable journey. Currently, foldables represent only 2% of global smartphone sales, but this niche is expected to expand dramatically. The iPhone Duo's launch is anticipated to significantly boost foldable adoption over the next year, despite premium pricing. Counterpoint Research forecasts 24% growth in 2023 and 37% in 2024 for this segment.
2Apple's projected market dominance
Industry analysts project Apple could capture 40% of the foldable market within its first few years of participation. This would position Apple as the market leader in this emerging category. The prediction accounts for Apple's brand strength and ecosystem advantages. Such dominance would mirror Apple's impact when originally entering the smartphone market with the first iPhone in 2007.
3Long-term market transformation
Gurman envisions foldables becoming mainstream within a decade, potentially constituting most new phone sales. As manufacturing costs decrease, even budget models like iPhone SE could adopt foldable designs. Consumers may increasingly value devices combining phone, tablet and laptop functionality. This convergence could redefine personal computing paradigms.
4Product line expansion plans
Apple may develop both premium and affordable foldable models, according to analyst predictions. An iPhone Duo Max with larger display could target the high-end market. Simultaneously, a foldable iPhone SE could democratize the technology. This two-pronged strategy mirrors Apple's current smartphone lineup approach.
5Technological hurdles ahead
Integrating Face ID into foldable designs presents engineering challenges. The depth requirements of Face ID components must be balanced against device thickness constraints. This technical problem is considered more solvable than under-display camera technology. Successful implementation would maintain Apple's biometric security standards.
6Market growth projections
Counterpoint Research's data shows foldables growing from their current 2% market share. The segment's expansion is expected to accelerate with Apple's entry. Early adopters have demonstrated willingness to pay premium prices for innovative form factors. Mainstream adoption depends on price reductions through manufacturing scale.
7Changing user expectations
Foldables promise to combine multiple device functionalities into one product. Users may increasingly value pocketable large displays for productivity. The convenience of replacing tablets and laptops could drive adoption. This aligns with broader tech industry convergence trends.
8Industry-wide implications
Apple's foldable push could validate the category for skeptical consumers. Competitors may accelerate their own foldable development programs. Supply chains will need to adapt to mass production demands. The smartphone market may experience its most significant transformation since the original iPhone.
Original article: 9to5Mac — Foldable iPhones to dominate market within a decade, predicts analyst