The New Underwater Arms Race for Critical Infrastructure Protection
Nations and corporations invest billions to secure vulnerable seabed cables and pipelines
1Cold War neglect meets new threats
Critical undersea infrastructure like communication cables and energy pipelines received minimal security attention post-Cold War until recent sabotage incidents. The 2022 Nord Stream pipeline explosions and cable damage near Taiwan exposed vulnerabilities in global economic arteries. Chatham House expert Katja Bego notes governments are now playing catch-up to protect these neglected assets against hybrid warfare tactics combining cyber, energy and conventional threats.
2The scale of underwater infrastructure
Over 1.5 million km of submarine communications cables currently span the ocean floor, alongside oil/gas pipelines and power cables linking offshore wind farms. TeleGeography data shows this network forms the backbone of global connectivity and energy markets. The vast scale makes physical protection challenging, with strategic assets often located in international waters beyond any single nation's jurisdiction.
3Autonomous systems as force multipliers
Companies like Euroatlas are developing AUVs like GrayShark that can patrol for weeks without human control, detecting anomalies like mines near pipelines. Unlike scarce frigates or submarines, drone fleets offer persistent monitoring of high-value areas. Verineia Codrean explains this addresses the 'mathematics problem' of securing millions of cable kilometers with limited crewed assets.
4New underwater warfare domains emerge
Beyond traditional anti-submarine warfare, defense firms now develop anti-AUV systems to detect hostile drones. Codrean notes the paradox: NATO and adversaries develop similar autonomous systems, requiring classification capabilities to distinguish friend from foe. This creates a new machine-vs-machine battleground beneath the waves.
5Industry consolidation accelerates
Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri invested €600M to acquire underwater drone and communications specialists, reflecting sector consolidation. CEO Pierroberto Folgiero positions underwater telecom as the ecosystem enabler. Similarly, France's Thales expands in sonar and autonomous systems, as defense giants vie for market share in this emerging domain.
6Technological limitations persist
Underwater operations face unique challenges: poor visibility, limited communication range, and energy constraints. Euroatlas' hydrogen-powered GrayShark aims for 8,000 nautical mile range but remains unproven. Bego cautions that underwater drones lag behind aerial counterparts seen in Ukraine and shouldn't be viewed as security panaceas.
7Public-private security dilemmas
Most subsea infrastructure is privately owned, creating responsibility gaps for protection against state-sponsored sabotage. Governments push for deeper cable burial and sensors, but cost allocation remains unresolved. Bego anticipates closer government-corporate cooperation rather than pure regulation to address these hybrid threats.
8Global strategic implications
The underwater domain has become a new great power competition arena, with Russia and China heavily investing alongside NATO members. As defense budgets shift toward seabed security, the technological race could redefine naval power projection and economic warfare tactics in coming decades.