The High Cost of Drafting Running Backs in the NFL Top 10
Recent struggles of top-drafted running backs highlight the risks of prioritizing position over value.
1Premium Draft Picks Struggling
The Las Vegas Raiders and Arizona Cardinals invested top-10 draft picks in running backs Ashton Jeanty and Jeremiyah Love. Despite these high expectations, both players have faced significant challenges. Jeanty has seen his workload decline steadily, while Love is currently sidelined with a high ankle sprain, raising questions about the team's strategic draft decisions.
2Jeanty's Declining Role
Drafted sixth overall in 2025, Ashton Jeanty has struggled to maintain his position in the Raiders' offense. After starting with 23 carries in Week 1, his usage dropped to just two carries by Week 8. The team has shifted focus toward fourth-round rookie Mike Washington Jr., who has demonstrated more consistent production on the field.
3Love's Frustrating Rookie Season
Selected third overall, Jeremiyah Love has endured a difficult start in Arizona, averaging only 3.5 yards per carry across six games. His season is further complicated by recurring ankle injuries, leading to a stint on injured reserve. This performance falls short of the impact expected from the highest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley in 2018.
4Opportunity Cost Analysis
Drafting running backs early often forces teams to bypass other critical positions like offensive tackle or wide receiver. In 2025, the Raiders passed on prospects like Armand Membou and Kelvin Banks Jr. to select Jeanty. Similarly, the Cardinals ignored needs at cornerback and linebacker, choosing to prioritize a running back over other roster-strengthening options.
5Historical Draft Precedents
History shows that high-drafted running backs often struggle to outperform later-round selections. In 2017, Jacksonville picked Leonard Fournette fourth, while stars like Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt were found in later rounds. These examples illustrate that elite production is not exclusive to first-round picks, making the high investment in top-10 running backs debatable.
6The Search for Exceptionalism
Data from 2000 to 2023 reveals that only 13% of first-round running backs reached 5,000 scrimmage yards in their first three seasons. Teams drafting in the top 10 are essentially betting on a rare, game-changing talent. When a player fails to reach this exceptional tier, the opportunity cost of passing on other positions becomes glaring.
7Efficiency Metrics Comparison
Analysis of running backs drafted between 2016 and 2023 shows minimal efficiency differences between first-rounders and Day 2 picks. Both groups averaged similar yards after contact and PFF rushing grades. This suggests that while first-rounders receive more opportunities, they do not necessarily provide a higher level of individual effectiveness compared to their later-round peers.
8Offensive Impact Limitations
Drafting a first-round running back does not consistently improve an entire offense's performance. A running back cannot compensate for deficiencies in offensive line blocking or poor quarterback play. Statistical reviews of 48 first-round selections indicate that adding a premium back rarely transforms a team's overall offensive output, regardless of the player's individual talent.
9The Financial Burden
Jeanty and Love signed rookie contracts worth approximately $35.9 million and $53 million respectively. These significant salary-cap commitments require immediate, high-level production to justify the investment. When these players fail to elevate the offense, the financial strain limits the team's ability to address other roster weaknesses, creating a cycle of underperformance and missed potential.
10Defining Draft Success
Success in the NFL draft requires identifying players who can elevate an entire team. While Jeanty and Love may still develop, the current results highlight the danger of prioritizing running backs over other positions. Teams must determine if the potential for an exceptional player outweighs the risk of missing out on foundational talent elsewhere.
Original article: CBS Sports – Headlines — The High Cost of Drafting Running Backs in the NFL Top 10