Climate change and Iran war shrink global sardine supply by nearly half
Morocco, the world's top sardine supplier, sees fish landings drop 46% between 2022-2024.
1Canned fish boom
The pandemic-era canned fish consumption trend continues to grow rapidly. In the U.S., canned fish sales rose from $2.3 billion in 2018 to $2.7 billion in 2024. Sardines have become the second most popular canned fish after tuna. Grubhub data shows canned fish orders tripled in 2025. The global canned fish market was valued at $10.24 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $17.97 billion by 2034.
2Moroccan fishing crisis
Fish landings in Morocco, the world's top sardine supplier, dropped 46% between 2022-2024. Climate change is forcing sardines to migrate to cooler waters. Fishermen who once worked near shore now must travel farther. Meanwhile, the Iran war has closed the Strait of Hormuz, driving up fuel prices. Fishermen are traveling longer distances with more expensive fuel but catching only half as much as before.
3Climate-driven migration
Prof. Rashid Sumaila from University of British Columbia notes sardines are highly temperature-sensitive. They migrate from Mexico through the U.S. to Canada following temperature changes. Moroccan sardines are similarly moving to cooler waters. Sumaila observed 34°C (91°F) temperatures at 2 a.m. in Portugal. He attributes the 45% decline to climate change, overfishing, and ocean pollution working together.
4War's indirect impact
While the Iran war doesn't directly affect sardine stocks, it hits Moroccan fishermen through fuel prices. Brent crude rose 10-13% after the Strait of Hormuz closure. The IEA called this the largest oil supply disruption in market history. Sumaila reports fishermen from Thailand to Africa to Pacific Islands are feeling the pinch. Higher fuel costs make fishing operations riskier.
5Double whammy effect
Sumaila explains two pressures converge for Moroccan fishermen: sardines are farther away while fuel is more expensive. They must travel longer distances for uncertain catches, increasing insurance costs and operational risks. Morocco's frozen sardine exports fell from 70% of small open-sea fish exports in 2020 to just 23% in 2025. Sumaila blames both climate change and rising energy costs for this decline.
6Consumer consequences
Sumaila's Canadian research shows consumers will pay more for less fish. It's not just local catches - seafood from worldwide sources is affected. Rising prices appear in household budgets. Sumaila notes this isn't just a developing world problem - everyone feels it. He says grocery costs dominate conversations at every meeting he attends recently.
7Subsidy paradox
Government fuel subsidies worsen the core problem. While fisheries research funding helps, fuel subsidies encourage overfishing. Sumaila's team estimates global fisheries subsidies at $35.4 billion in 2018, with $22.2 billion classified as capacity-enhancing subsidies that drive overfishing. This further depletes fish stocks, forcing boats to travel even farther for shrinking catches.
8Global food chain risk
The sardine supply crunch threatens more than one fish species - it endangers the entire food chain. The combination of climate change and geopolitical conflict creates a unique crisis. Sumaila calls this a 'double whammy.' Rising costs and declining productivity affect not just fisheries but consumers and retailers. If this trend continues, it could have severe consequences for millions who rely on seafood as a protein source.
Original article: Fortune | FORTUNE — İklim değişikliği ve İran savaşı sardalya arzını vurdu