Spanish General Election Analysis: 26 Seats Remain Highly Contested
While half the country shows stable polling, 25 provinces remain battlegrounds for key parliamentary seats.
1Election Landscape Overview
Spain faces a critical general election on November 29, 2026. Recent polling data from Sigma Dos indicates that while 27 provinces show stable results, 25 remain highly competitive. Currently, 26 parliamentary seats are still undecided, creating a volatile environment where the final distribution of power remains fluid across the national geography.
2Feijóo Versus Sánchez
The rivalry between Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Pedro Sánchez dominates six key provinces. Feijóo currently holds a significant advantage, with potential victories in 32 regions compared to Sánchez's four. In areas like Almería and Cantabria, the two leaders are currently tied, while Sevilla remains one of the few strongholds for the PSOE.
3Vox and Frente Amplio
Vox and Frente Amplio are competing for third and fourth place, with four direct duels underway. In Zaragoza and Asturias, Vox seeks to secure a second seat by potentially displacing the left-wing coalition. Meanwhile, La Coruña stands out as the only province where Frente Amplio currently challenges Vox for a decisive seat.
4Cross-Bloc Electoral Battles
Beyond the primary leadership duels, three provinces feature intense cross-bloc competition. In Valencia, Compromís aims to gain a third deputy at the expense of the PP. Simultaneously, Málaga and Madrid see PSOE and Vox fighting for the second-place position, a shift that could significantly alter the parliamentary balance of power.
5Intra-Bloc Power Struggles
Internal competition is reshaping the political landscape in seven provinces. Vox is aggressively targeting second seats held by the PP in regions like Huesca, Teruel, and Zamora. If successful, Vox could expand its presence to 42 provinces, a substantial increase from the 24 seats it secured during the 2023 general elections.
6Regional Party Influence
Regional parties like Coalición Canaria and Adelante Andalucía are actively contesting final seats against national incumbents. In Barcelona, a complex four-way battle involving PSOE, Vox, ERC, and Junts remains unresolved. Despite these regional efforts, current projections suggest Sánchez cannot regain his investiture majority, which remains limited to eight specific regional areas.
7Consolidated Shifts Since 2023
While half the country remains static, 14 provinces show a consolidated shift in seat distribution compared to 2023. In seven of these, Vox has emerged as a new force, while the alternative left has disappeared in six others. Overall, the right-wing bloc has gained ground in 19 provinces at the expense of left-wing parties.
8Polling Methodology and Context
The Sigma Dos survey, conducted between October 30 and November 6, 2026, utilized a mixed methodology of telephone and online interviews. With a 2.1% margin of error, the data confirms that 63% of the electoral map will produce different results than in 2023, highlighting a significant transformation in Spain's political trajectory.