UAE Official Warns of Prolonged Gulf Instability Amid US-Iran Conflict
Diplomatic advisor Anwar Gargash anticipates a long period of regional uncertainty without political resolution.
1Regional Uncertainty Warning
Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to the UAE president, warned at the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate that the Gulf faces a prolonged period of instability. He stated that neither a decisive resolution nor a stable regional order can be guaranteed, as the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran remains unresolved.
2Stalled Diplomatic Efforts
Gargash noted that a comprehensive political settlement between Washington and Tehran appears difficult to achieve. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed this sentiment on November 8, stating he does not believe a diplomatic breakthrough is imminent. This deadlock leaves the Middle East in a precarious state of limbo for now.
3Impact of Military Tensions
The conflict has already seen significant military action, including US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February. Iran responded by targeting Gulf infrastructure, including the port of Fujairah. Despite high expectations of a new attack, President Trump recently suggested that further strikes are highly unlikely during ongoing negotiations.
4Economic Vulnerability Risks
Gulf states face severe challenges in maintaining foreign investment and energy exports due to the 'no war, no peace' scenario. The UAE, which relies heavily on tourism, real estate, and maritime trade, is particularly exposed. Houthi strikes on Saudi pipelines further underscore the vulnerability of critical energy infrastructure across the region.
5Shifting Defensive Strategy
In response to the persistent threat, the UAE plans to increase investments in defensive capabilities and credible deterrence. Gargash emphasized the necessity of strengthening international security partnerships. The UAE has specifically expressed gratitude to France, Israel, Greece, Egypt, and India for their support and solidarity during recent Iranian missile and drone attacks.
6Transactional Diplomatic Engagement
Gargash indicated that the UAE must engage in sustained diplomatic efforts with Iran and other international partners to navigate this uncertainty. He suggested that some near-term engagement might be transactional by necessity. This approach reflects a pragmatic shift as the region attempts to manage the consequences of a war without winners.
7Internal Political Dynamics
The regional outlook is influenced by US domestic politics, following a sweeping midterm election victory for Democrats on November 3. Trump and Vice President JD Vance attributed this result to the unpopularity of the US-Israeli war on Iran. These political shifts add another layer of complexity to the ongoing regional security crisis.
8Future Regional Outlook
The Gulf region remains caught in a cycle of blockade and retaliation, with three US aircraft carrier strike groups currently stationed nearby. As the UAE seeks a new mindset involving an 'Iranian-Arab' element, the long-term stability of the region depends on whether these diplomatic overtures can effectively mitigate the persistent security threats.