Deloitte Projects Canadian Holiday Spending to Decline 14% Amid Inflation
Economic pressure and rising costs drive consumers toward extreme value consciousness.
1Historic Contraction in Spending
Deloitte Canada forecasts overall holiday spending will decline 14 percent to $1,305 per consumer, down from $1,521 in 2025. This contraction marks the lowest projected baseline since the survey began. Rising living costs and macroeconomic uncertainty are forcing households to become far more intentional with discretionary allocations.
2Entertaining and Experiences Squeezed
The deepest cutbacks target hospitality and leisure rather than core gift-giving. Spending on holiday entertaining, including groceries, alcohol, and cannabis, is projected to fall 22 percent. Meanwhile, experiential budgets covering dining out and vacation travel will drop 20 percent, while direct gift expenditures decrease five percent.
3Pervasive Economic Pessimism
Widespread financial anxiety is heavily influencing consumer sentiment across all demographics. One in three Canadians reports worse household finances than last year, while 45 percent anticipate broader economic weakening by 2027. Furthermore, 83 percent express deep concern over potential tariff impacts on retail pricing and general inflation.
4Value Over Local Loyalty
While 45 percent of shoppers view domestic or local ownership as an important purchasing criterion, price sensitivity often overrides patriotism. Roughly 35 percent refuse to pay any premium based strictly on local provenance. Securing baseline value remains the ultimate deciding factor across essential and non-essential holiday categories.
5Concentrated Promotional Window
Shoppers plan to deploy more than half their entire holiday budget across the Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotional period. Approximately 78 percent are actively seeking discounts and promotional sales to shield shrinking budgets, while 29 percent plan to curtail total unit purchases to manage expenses.
6Fragmented Omnichannel Journeys
Gift research is increasingly dispersed, with shoppers visiting an average of 16 physical and digital touchpoints, up from 14 last year. Consumers aged 35 to 44 plan to browse 23 retailers. Planned spending remains divided, with 55 percent occurring in-store and 42 percent shifting to digital channels.
7Surge in Retail AI
Nearly 40 percent of shoppers intend to leverage artificial intelligence for deal discovery, gift inspiration, and price comparison, up from 25 percent in 2025. Amazon and Alphabet remain primary search hubs, but only 19 percent of consumers currently trust AI systems to execute transactions autonomously on their behalf.
8Privacy vs Promotional Incentive
Data privacy remains a key friction point for retailers attempting personalized discount targeting. While 46 percent of consumers willingly share personal data in exchange for targeted promotions, 68 percent worry about opaque data practices and potential misuse, requiring brands to maintain clear and transparent digital value exchanges.