Oil and Gas Majors Expand Fossil Fuel Projects Despite Climate Pledges
Global firms continue aggressive hydrocarbon exploration, undermining international climate targets and transition commitments.
1Persistent Fossil Fuel Expansion
The 2026 Global Oil and Gas Exit List reveals that 96% of upstream energy firms are actively developing new hydrocarbon reserves. Despite public climate pledges, companies continue to prioritize exploration. This trend persists even as global demand remains uncertain, creating significant risks for long-term infrastructure and the 1.5C climate pathway.
2Major Corporate Overshoot
ExxonMobil leads the industry in exceeding International Energy Agency pathways, with an overshoot increasing by 195% since 2022. Other major players, including TotalEnergies, Shell, Eni, BP, and Equinor, have collectively spent $39 billion on exploration since 2022. These investments signal a strategic commitment to fossil fuels over rapid decarbonization.
3AI Data Center Impact
The rapid growth of artificial intelligence is driving inflated energy expectations within the oil and gas sector. Data centers are increasing electricity demand, which critics argue is fueling continued fossil fuel reliance. This expansion complicates efforts to transition toward cleaner energy, as infrastructure demands prioritize immediate power availability over sustainability.
4Surging Quarterly Profits
Six major oil giants generated $38 billion in profits between July and September. Year-to-date earnings reached $89 billion, representing a 102% increase compared to the same period last year. These substantial financial gains highlight how fossil fuel companies continue to benefit from volatile energy costs while maintaining aggressive expansion strategies.
5Türkiye's Strategic Shift
COP31 co-host Türkiye has seen its national oil company, TPAO, grow sevenfold since 2021. TPAO now produces 1.98 billion barrels of oil equivalent, ranking as the world’s 11th largest state-owned developer. The company has signed exploration partnerships with major international firms like Chevron and Shell, despite the country's national electrification targets.
6COP31 Leadership Contradictions
Türkiye aims for 35% electrification by 2035 but is currently only on track for 25%. Fossil fuels still account for 56% of the nation's power generation. Similarly, co-host Australia remains the world’s second-largest coal exporter. These domestic policies raise concerns regarding the credibility of their leadership roles during the climate summit.
7Coal Pipeline Trends
Urgewald’s Global Coal Exit List indicates that for every cancelled coal project, three new ones are announced. In 2025, 257 new projects were planned, while only 76 were shelved. Collectively, 335 developers are planning 606 new coal-fired power projects, representing a capacity four times larger than the entire existing US coal fleet.
8Future Financial Risks
Continued reliance on fossil fuel infrastructure exposes investors to the risk of stranded assets as the energy transition accelerates. Experts warn that building a clean future on a dirty foundation is fundamentally unsustainable. The disconnect between corporate expansion plans and global climate goals remains a critical challenge for long-term economic stability.
Original article: edie — Oil and Gas Majors Expand Fossil Fuel Projects Despite Climate Pledges