Bitcoin Approaches $96.7K Resistance Amid ETF and Spot Demand Surge
BTC's rally shows sustained demand as key options expiry passes with controlled profit-taking.
1Breakthrough above key cost bases
Bitcoin has surpassed crucial investor cost bases after a $10,000 advance over 10 days, signaling stronger momentum than previous 2026 rebounds. Unlike typical recovery patterns, holders aren't rushing to sell, as shown by Glassnode's onchain data. The Realized Price floor held during the downturn, while NUPL remained positive despite stress levels comparable to 2022. This combination suggests the market avoided full capitulation seen in past crypto winters.
2Institutional demand drivers
Spot trading volume has more than doubled since August lows, with ETF buying strengthening alongside price appreciation. This spot-driven rally carries different risk characteristics than leverage-fueled moves. The $84K-$85K zone contains significant long-term holder coins that could trigger profit-taking, but current selling remains at fractions of 2024-2025 peak levels. Beyond this zone, the next major resistance stands at $96,700 MVRV price level.
3Quarterly options expiry impact
The market faces a $14.04B Bitcoin options expiry on Sept 25, representing 32% of total open interest. With 167,000 contracts expiring (put-call ratio 0.87, max pain $79K), dealer positioning concentrated around $84K pre-settlement. Post-expiry, gamma exposure is expected to shift above $90K, potentially amplifying moves between current levels and $92K while creating resistance near $95K. Ether options worth $2.1B (40% of ETH OI) also expire simultaneously.
4Market structure improvements
The recovery shows healthier characteristics than previous rallies, with traders adding relatively little leverage compared to the move's scale. Implied volatility remains contained despite recovering from last week's levels. Much expiry-related activity involved position rolling rather than aggressive directional bets. This suggests more measured participation rather than speculative frenzy, as altcoins join the broad-based recovery.
5Key supply zone under test
The $84K-$85K range represents a critical supply zone where long-term holders might consider profit-taking. Successful absorption of this supply could shift focus toward higher targets at $90K, $95K, and ultimately the $96.7K MVRV resistance. Controlled profit realization despite nearly all short-term holders being in profit indicates stronger holder conviction compared to previous cycles.
6Gamma dynamics post-expiry
With gamma exposure expected to shift above $90K after the options expiry, price movements could become more volatile in this range. The $92K level may see amplified moves due to dealer hedging requirements, while $95K could develop stronger resistance. This gamma positioning creates a potential pathway toward testing the $96.7K resistance if spot demand continues absorbing supply.
7Institutional participation grows
ETF buying has strengthened in tandem with rising prices and increased exchange activity, reflecting growing institutional participation. The spot-driven nature of this rally provides more sustainable foundations than derivatives-led moves. As the market digests the options expiry, the key question becomes whether real demand persists to push through upper resistance levels.
8Transition to higher range
Bitcoin stands at a critical transition point between the mid-$80Ks and higher targets. The combination of controlled profit-taking, improving institutional demand, and successful navigation of major options expiry could pave the way for testing the $96.7K MVRV resistance. Sustained spot and ETF buying would validate the breakout, potentially opening the path to six-figure price scenarios as market structure continues improving.
Original article: Bitcoin News — Bitcoin Approaches $96.7K Resistance Amid ETF and Spot Demand Surge