Bitcoin Shows Bull Market Signal Similar to 2019 and 2023 Starts
Glassnode's momentum indicator crosses key threshold as BTC recovers from yearly lows
1Key momentum threshold crossed
Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has crossed above its 365-day average, a signal last seen at the start of the 2019 and 2023 bull markets. The MVRV compares Bitcoin's market capitalization with the estimated value of coins based on their last movement. This crossover indicates the ratio has risen above its recent trend, historically signaling potential market recovery phases after major declines.
2Historical bull market parallels
Glassnode's analysis shows similar MVRV crossovers preceded the 2019 and 2023 bull runs, though subsequent price paths differed. The 2019 rally saw sharp gains followed by partial retracement, while 2023's recovery continued into 2024. While historical patterns don't guarantee future performance, the current signal gains relevance as Bitcoin recovers from 2026 lows, briefly touching $87,000 this week for the first time since January.
3Spot ETF demand surges
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $999 million in net inflows on September 21, the largest single-day total of 2026. This surge in institutional demand coincides with the MVRV crossover, though the indicator measures valuation rather than predicting future buying volume. The ETF flows provide a separate metric of market interest alongside on-chain momentum signals.
4Potential supply pressure points
An estimated 1.07 million BTC was acquired between $83,000-$86,000, creating potential selling pressure as prices revisit this range. The largest concentration sits around $85,000, mostly held by long-term investors. As these positions approach breakeven, the market faces a test of whether current demand can absorb potential supply from profit-taking or position unwinding.
5Options market positioning
Glassnode's September 23 analysis identifies $95,000-$97,000 as the first major resistance level if the rally continues. Options traders have built significant positions near higher price levels, which could influence Bitcoin's next directional move. Current profit-taking activity remains relatively light compared to previous market cycles at similar stages.
6Altcoin market divergence
Despite Bitcoin's recovery, less than 25% of median altcoin supply remains in profit, according to Glassnode's September 22 report. This metric measures coins held above acquisition cost rather than individual investor positions. While 72.5% of tracked altcoins outperformed Bitcoin last week, many holders remain underwater from higher purchase prices.
7MVRV's predictive limitations
The MVRV ratio crossover signals improved market conditions but doesn't measure subsequent buying pressure. Historical comparisons provide context but not certainty, as each cycle features unique macroeconomic and regulatory conditions. The indicator's value lies in confirming momentum shifts rather than predicting price targets or timing market turns.
8Cycle structure observations
Current market behavior resembles early bull market phases where initial momentum signals precede sustained price appreciation. However, the concentration of coins near current prices introduces supply-side considerations absent in previous cycles. The interplay between institutional ETF demand and long-term holder supply will likely determine whether this signal confirms a new bull market.
Original article: Bitcoin News — Bitcoin Shows Bull Market Signal Similar to 2019 and 2023 Starts