Victorian Election Strategy Hinges on Liberal Preference Deals
Liberal Party preference decisions will determine the outcome of the upcoming Victorian election.
1Labor Faces Electoral Crisis
A recent DemosAU/Premier National poll indicates Labor support has plummeted to 18 percent in Victoria. This places the party third, trailing behind One Nation and narrowly ahead of the Greens. Such a catastrophic decline suggests Labor may struggle to secure even opposition status, fundamentally altering the state's political landscape ahead of the election.
2Liberal Party Preference Power
The Liberal Party holds significant influence because over half of their voters follow official how-to-vote cards. While smaller parties lack the distribution capacity and Greens voters often ignore such guidance, Liberal directives remain a decisive factor. Consequently, the party's choice on where to place opponents on these cards is the election's most critical variable.
3Historical Shifts in Strategy
In the late 1990s, Liberal urban moderates successfully pushed to place One Nation last, which contributed to the party's marginalization for two decades. However, by 2016, a more conservative Liberal Party abandoned this stance. Current discussions suggest they may now selectively withhold preferences from specific One Nation candidates deemed unacceptable in certain electoral contests.
4The Inner-City Battleground
The most significant strategic choice for the Liberals involves the expanding inner-city zone where the Greens challenge Labor. Since 2010, the Liberals have experimented with various tactics, including putting the Greens last. In 2022, the party shifted focus, viewing the Andrews government as the greater evil, which significantly boosted the Greens' vote share.
5Impact of Preference Flows
In 2022, the Greens' share of Liberal preferences rose from one-quarter to two-thirds. This shift increased their vote by eight percentage points in seats where the Liberal vote reached 20 percent. These preferences reduced Labor margins in areas like Northcote and Preston to 4.2 percent, demonstrating the tangible power of Liberal-directed voting patterns.
6One Nation's Strategic Demands
One Nation has actively sought to influence the Coalition, demanding a commitment to place Labor last during the recent CPAC conference in Brisbane. Meanwhile, the Greens have found an unlikely ally in this effort. These maneuvers highlight how minor parties are attempting to leverage the Liberal Party's preference cards to damage Labor's electoral prospects.
7Northern Metropolitan Region Test
The upper house race in the Northern Metropolitan region serves as a litmus test for these dynamics. One Nation candidate Mark Nicholson, known for the Please Explain webseries, may rely heavily on the Liberal how-to-vote card. His success or failure will illustrate how effectively the Liberals can manage their influence in progressive strongholds.
8Future of the Left
The final preference decisions will likely determine which party dominates the inner Melbourne core, potentially the last stronghold for the left in the next parliament. As the Liberals weigh these choices, the outcome will reshape the legislative balance, proving that in this Victorian election, the preference deal is the only factor that truly matters.
Original article: Crikey — Victorian Election Strategy Hinges on Liberal Preference Deals