After SpaceX, investors target Anthropic and OpenAI for next trillion-dollar IPOs
Expert strategies to evaluate the most anticipated public offerings
1IPO frenzy and the FOMO effect
SpaceX's public debut triggered intense fear of missing out (FOMO) among investors. Experts note that Nvidia's 180x return over a decade has created psychological pressure, making rational decisions harder. SpaceX's 19% first-day pop became a tangible manifestation of this market euphoria.
2Why first-day buying is risky
Data shows median IPOs decline about 26% three years post-debut. While exceptions like Moderna exist, flash-in-the-pan cases like Abgenix and Enzo Biochem serve as warnings for patient investors. Analysts recommend waiting for volatility to settle rather than chasing opening prices.
3Revenue-focused evaluation
OpenAI's $25B and Anthropic's $47B annual revenue targets differ markedly from dot-com bubble's 'eyeball metrics'. Wellington Management's Witheiler emphasizes real business models where customers open wallets: 'The numbers tell you everything you need to know' about sustainable growth.
4The prospectus imperative
SpaceX's S-1 filing reveals Musk's Mars colony dreams contain no financial commitments. Renaissance Capital's Marquez criticizes retail investors' headline-skimming approach: 'Critical details like Musk's super-voting shares only appear in the fine print of prospectus documents'.
5Long-term opportunity windows
SpaceX shares spiked to $225 post-IPO before retreating to $160, demonstrating volatility. Osterweis Capital's Wong advocates 'picks and shovels' strategy: 'Investing in space infrastructure providers may offer lower-risk exposure than direct bets on SpaceX'.
6The new Magnificent Three era
The SpaceX-Anthropic-OpenAI trifecta has become tech investors' new reference point. Analysts interpret 16 companies crossing the trillion-dollar threshold since Apple's 2018 milestone as validation of AI and space industries' transformative potential in this investment cycle.
Original article: Fortune — SpaceX sonrası yatırımcıların yeni hedefi: Antropik ve OpenAI