US-China Tech Rivalry Needs More Confidence, Less Anxiety
Peking University expert urges US to leverage strengths amid global tensions.
1Over-securitization warning
Yu Tiejun compared current US-China tensions to pre-WWII dynamics, criticizing excessive security concerns in bilateral relations. He noted rising nationalism and populism mirror 1930s patterns. The Peking University strategist spoke at Singapore's Asia New Vision Forum, where diplomatic experts gathered amid a slight thaw following Xi's Washington visit. This temporary easing follows a decade of deteriorating relations marked by harsh rhetoric.
2US capital expenditure dominance
American tech firms spent $400 billion in 2025 versus China's $63 billion, per Boston Consulting Group. Yu highlighted US strengths in deep capital markets and tech valuations, citing Anthropic and OpenAI's lead over Chinese counterparts like DeepSeek. He argued these advantages should reduce US anxiety about competition. The data shows structural US leadership despite China's rapid advancement in key technologies.
3Diplomatic thaw dynamics
Recent Xi-Biden talks extended the bilateral trade truce for two months, creating cautious optimism. Panelists noted this mild improvement contrasts with typical tensions between the world's largest economies. The Singapore forum occurred against this backdrop of fragile diplomatic progress. Experts emphasized maintaining momentum despite fundamental disagreements on technology transfer and market access policies.
4Multipolar world vision
Yu endorsed Xi's call for an equal multipolar order, positioning China as a stabilizer amid US-Russia conflicts. Fellow panelist Joseph Liow suggested collaboration areas like AI governance and biotechnology. The LKYSPP dean identified political barriers as the main obstacle to cooperation. Both experts agreed great powers should balance competition with shared interest in global stability.
5Southeast Asia's dilemma
Smaller nations face increasing pressure to choose sides, according to Liow. He advocated strategic autonomy - managing dependencies without becoming vulnerable. ADB forecasts 4.7-4.9% growth for Southeast Asia through 2027, though uneven development complicates regional integration. ASEAN's diversity makes unified positions difficult, with Singapore preparing to chair the bloc in 2027.
6ASEAN+3 economic model
AMRO director Yasuto Watanabe highlighted the ASEAN+3 framework linking Southeast Asia with China, Japan and South Korea. This open integration model has proven resilient to shocks, he argued. The approach contrasts with protectionist tendencies in US-China relations. Watanabe emphasized maintaining regional economic connectivity despite great power tensions that could divide the Asia-Pacific.
7Tech competition realities
Panelists acknowledged US structural advantages in capital and innovation ecosystems. However, Chinese firms demonstrate rapid scaling capabilities in strategic sectors. The discussion revealed competing assessments about long-term trajectories, with US strengths in foundational research versus Chinese implementation speed. Both sides face pressure to avoid decoupling's economic costs.
8Strategic confidence needed
Yu's central argument urges the US to compete from strength rather than fear. His analysis suggests overestimating Chinese capabilities could distort American policy responses. The forum highlighted how great power competition impacts third parties, with Southeast Asia seeking to maintain autonomy. Experts agreed managed competition requires clear red lines and cooperation channels.
Original article: Fortune — US-China Tech Rivalry Needs More Confidence, Less Anxiety