All 16 of Russia's latest satellites for its Starlink rival fail to reach target orbit
Second batch of Rassvet-3 satellites fails, dealing blow to Russia's satellite internet ambitions.
1Critical failure in Rassvet-3 project
The second batch of Russia's Starlink rival Rassvet-3 satellites failed to reach target orbit. Launched on July 19, all 16 satellites remain at 190-250 miles altitude instead of the planned 500 miles. Atmospheric drag at this altitude significantly reduces satellite lifespan. The satellites are expected to deorbit and burn up. This failure disrupts Russia's plans to build its own satellite internet network, crucial after SpaceX cut service to Russian forces in February 2024.
2Current project status
Bureau 1440's Rassvet-3 project has launched 32 satellites so far. While 12 of the first 16 satellites reached 340-mile altitude, all 16 in the second batch failed. This drops the project's current success rate to 37.5%. For comparison, SpaceX's Starlink has only a 3% failure rate. Russian space agency Roscosmos and Bureau 1440 haven't commented on the failures. Independent analysts suggest Russia may have rushed deployment without proper testing or contingency plans.
3Russia's Starlink dependence
The Ukraine war demonstrated Starlink's critical role in military communications. After SpaceX terminated service to Russian forces on February 1, 2024, Rassvet-3 aimed to fill this gap. Experts estimate Russia needs 200-250 operational satellites for stable internet coverage. Currently, only 12 satellites function properly. This slow progress severely limits Russia's military communication capabilities, particularly for drone operations and battlefield coordination.
4Launch capacity challenges
Rassvet-3 satellites launch on Soviet-era Soyuz-2.1b rockets, with maximum annual capacity of about 80 satellites. At this rate, reaching 200 satellites would take over 2.5 years - assuming all launches succeed. The current 37.5% success rate could extend this timeline significantly. Ukraine's August missile strike on a Soyuz production facility in western Russia may further reduce launch capacity, compounding existing challenges from Western sanctions.
5Military applications
Satellite internet has become a decisive communication tool in the Ukraine war. Both sides use it for military comms, drone control, and command updates. Russia was previously caught using Starlink terminals to relay signals to attack drones, bypassing jamming. Rassvet-3 failures jeopardize Russia's ability to maintain this capability. The lower orbit of functioning satellites also reduces coverage area and signal strength for military operations.
6Potential technical causes
Reasons for the orbit failure remain unclear. Positional data shows many satellites attempted climb maneuvers but fell short. Analysts suggest Russia may lack experience deploying constellations at this pace. Possible causes include propulsion system failures, incorrect orbital calculations, or manufacturing defects. These issues mirror challenges Russia faced with its GLONASS navigation system, where satellites frequently malfunctioned prematurely.
7Global satellite internet race
Russia's setbacks weaken its position in the global satellite internet competition. While SpaceX operates over 11,000 Starlink satellites, and competitors like OneWeb and Amazon's Kuiper advance rapidly, Russia lags behind. This delay creates strategic disadvantages in both military and commercial domains. Coverage gaps, especially in northern latitudes crucial for Russia's Arctic interests, may persist for years without quick resolution.
8War's impact on tech competition
The Ukraine conflict has highlighted satellite internet's strategic importance. Rassvet-3 failures expose weaknesses in Russia's military communication infrastructure. Western sanctions and technology restrictions further complicate Russia's efforts to develop alternatives. This situation underscores the technology dimension of modern warfare and Russia's risk of falling behind in critical infrastructure that increasingly determines battlefield outcomes.
Original article: Business Insider — Rusya'nın Starlink rakibi 16 uydusu hedef yörüngesine ulaşamadı