El Niño and Saharan Dust Quiet the Atlantic Hurricane Season
This year's Atlantic hurricane season could be one of the quietest on record.
1Atlantic Hurricane Season Remains Quiet
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is on track to be one of the quietest in history. Only three named storms have been recorded since June. These storms were weak and disorganized, with overall activity expected to remain low. Meteorologists are assessing the possibility of one or two additional tropical storms by mid-August.
2The Impact of El Niño
This year's El Niño is making history by driving sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean to record levels. This phenomenon significantly alters global weather patterns. El Niño requires water temperatures around the equator to be at least 0.5°C above normal. This year, temperatures in some parts of the Pacific have soared to 4°C above average.
3Wind Shear Effect
Abnormally warm waters in the Pacific create pockets of rising air, altering upper-level wind patterns. Increased convection and adjusted wind patterns result in stronger-than-usual wind shear over the Atlantic. This disrupts the formation of tropical storms.
4The Role of Saharan Dust
Dry, dusty air from the Sahara Desert blows east to west across the Atlantic, creating a lid-like effect on the atmosphere. This suppresses the moist and warm conditions necessary for storm development. Saharan dust further limits the already low potential of this hurricane season.
5Weak West African Monsoon
The West African monsoon typically plays a key role in sending thunderstorms over the Atlantic that can develop into tropical systems. However, this year's monsoon has been weak, with below-average rainfall in regions like Sierra Leone and Guinea. This has resulted in less intense tropical disturbances.
6Active Pacific Conditions
In contrast to the quiet Atlantic, tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific Ocean has been intense. The western Pacific typhoon season has been the most active in nearly 50 years by early August. Four storms in the region reached Category 5 strength, including Sinlaku, Bavi, Dolphin, and Genevieve.
7Low ACE Measurements
Meteorologists use Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) to measure the intensity and duration of a hurricane season. An average Atlantic hurricane season produces an ACE of 122.5, while this year's season has so far reached only 3.1 ACE. This is just 23% of the average for mid-August.
8Future Risks
Fewer storms do not mean zero storms. Past El Niño conditions have seen intense hurricanes like Camille, Ivan, Charley, Michael, Idalia, and Lee. Coastal residents should continue monitoring forecasts and remain prepared. This year's Tropical Storm Arthur may have broken Louisiana's 24-hour rainfall record.
Original article: Wired — El Niño ve Sahra Tozu Atlantik Kasırga Sezonunu Sessizleştiriyor