Record-Low Hurricane Activity in Atlantic Due to Historic El Niño
El Niño disrupts Atlantic hurricane season, setting a new record for inactivity.
1Unprecedented Hurricane Season
The Atlantic hurricane season is experiencing record-low activity, with no hurricanes formed by mid-September. This breaks the previous satellite-era record set in 2002 and 2013. Typically, eight named storms and three hurricanes would have developed by this time. The current season has only seen five tropical storms: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard.
2El Niño's Strong Influence
The primary cause of this unusual quiet is a historic El Niño, expected to peak in November or December. El Niño warms the tropical Pacific, altering global weather patterns. In the Atlantic, it increases upper-level winds, creating wind shear that disrupts storm formation. NOAA predicts this El Niño could be the strongest since 1950.
3Saharan Dust Contribution
Adding to El Niño's impact, Saharan dust has suppressed storm development. Over the past week, winds carried dry, dusty air from Africa across the Atlantic. This layer inhibits thunderstorm growth by creating unfavorable atmospheric conditions. The dust is expected to maintain quieter weather for at least another week.
4Pacific Contrast
While the Atlantic remains quiet, the eastern Pacific has seen near-average activity with 13 named storms, including five hurricanes. Three reached major hurricane status, close to a typical full-season count. Major Hurricane Lowell recently hit Hawaii with destructive winds, heavy rain, and high waves.
5Forecast Accuracy
The National Hurricane Center's May prediction of a below-average season (8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes) is proving accurate. Their forecast anticipated El Niño's effects, including increased wind shear that prevents thunderstorms from intensifying into tropical storms or hurricanes.
6Historical Context
This season's inactivity sets a new satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane formation. The previous record was September 11, shared by 2002 and 2013 seasons. The modern satellite record began in the 1960s, providing comprehensive storm tracking data for comparison.
7Global Weather Impact
El Niño's influence extends beyond hurricanes, potentially causing record global temperatures. The phenomenon disrupts typical weather patterns worldwide, leading to varied regional effects. While suppressing Atlantic storms, it often enhances Pacific hurricane activity, creating contrasting conditions in different ocean basins.
8Long-Term Implications
This record-breaking season highlights climate variability's impact on weather systems. While El Niño occurs naturally, its intensity and effects provide valuable data for climate models. Understanding these patterns improves future hurricane forecasts and preparedness for both inactive and hyperactive seasons.
Original article: BBC News — Record-Low Hurricane Activity in Atlantic Due to Historic El Niño