# Global Economy Faces Multi-Trillion Dollar Threat from Record El Niño Severe weather patterns compound existing trade turmoil and geopolitical instability worldwide. - **Source:** [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com) - **Published:** 2026-11-10 - **Topic:** [Business](https://brifing.si/c/business) - **Original article:** - **On Brifing:** https://brifing.si/s/667ee53e-4e94-4c0f-a211-1223b200487c ## Escalating Climate Crisis The world is currently experiencing an evolving El Niño, a natural weather phenomenon causing extreme global volatility. While patterns vary, this event is already triggering deadly floods in the American Southwest and severe droughts across Southeast Asia. Experts warn that this climate event could become the strongest ever recorded in history. ## Massive Economic Projections Economist Cullen Hendrix estimates that this El Niño could cost the global economy over $7 trillion during the next five years. Annual losses are expected to reach approximately $1 trillion, a figure comparable to the entire GDP of Mexico. These systemic impacts threaten to destabilize nations already struggling with ongoing trade turmoil. ## Uneven Regional Impacts Agricultural yield disruptions are highly uneven across the globe. Southern Africa, India, Central America, and Australia are expected to face the most severe pain, while the United States and Central Asia may see potential benefits. Global crop inventories are currently expected to help cushion the initial shock of these production losses. ## Historical Precedent and Risk The 2015-16 El Niño affected 60 million people and triggered $5 billion in humanitarian appeals across two dozen countries. Studies suggest that prior events caused tens of billions in economic damage. Governments and banks are now bracing for substantial disruptions to critical infrastructure, food production, and rising global inflation rates. ## Vulnerable Nations at Risk Many countries are reeling from the economic and energy shock waves of the Iran war, leaving them with little cushion to absorb new pressures. Lower- and middle-income nations will likely face the most painful consequences. Peru and Bolivia have already declared states of emergency due to the ongoing drought and flooding. ## Humanitarian Funding Shortfalls Aid agencies are struggling to respond as networks are strained by funding cuts and reduced resources. The United Nations faces a $300 million shortfall for operations in Sudan, where 19.5 million people face acute hunger. Intensified famine concerns are rising as drought conditions exacerbate existing civil war and regional instability. ## Delayed Crisis Manifestation There is a significant lag between the onset of drought and its full impact on food security. Experts indicate that the most severe consequences of these weather patterns can be delayed by six to nine months. Consequently, the worst effects of this current El Niño likely will not emerge until later. ## Urgent Call for Action OCHA chief Tom Fletcher described this El Niño as a wrecking ball, warning that failing to act would be an extraordinary failure. With meteorological warnings growing more urgent, the international community faces pressure to protect vulnerable populations. The event is expected to reach its full, destructive might by this coming December. ## Sources covering this story - https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/11/10/el-nino-economy-agriculture-cost/ — --- _Summary written by Brifing from the original reporting. Copyright in the original article belongs to its publisher; read the full piece at the link above._