The Nationals Face Existential Threat from One Nation Surge
Australia's rural party struggles to maintain relevance against rising populist competition.
1Nationals at a Crossroads
The Australian Nationals face a critical period as Senator Matt Canavan prepares to move to the House of Representatives by 2028. Long-term observers suggest the party is on life support, struggling against a surge in support for One Nation. This trend poses a severe existential threat to their traditional regional power base.
2Regional Electoral Vulnerability
The party faces immediate tests in upcoming state elections in Victoria and New South Wales. While Victorian prospects remain stable due to a distinct identity, the New South Wales branch faces a potential wipeout of its 11 lower house seats. The optional preferential voting system further complicates their path to retaining these seats.
3The Barnaby Joyce Factor
Barnaby Joyce’s defection to One Nation proved disastrous for the Nationals. Despite his reputation as a disruptive figure, Joyce acted as a moderating force within the populist movement. His departure has emboldened regional voters to shift their allegiance, while simultaneously giving One Nation increased political heft and a more experienced public profile.
4Strategic Missteps and Leadership
Under David Littleproud, the party made costly errors by splitting the Coalition twice, creating an image of unpredictability. Although Matt Canavan remains a strong communicator with an economics background, the party has struggled to maintain a unified front. These internal tensions have hindered their ability to counter the growing influence of rivals.
5Senate Seats at Risk
Internal party sources indicate that three of the four Nationals Senate spots are currently at risk for the 2028 election. These include seats held by Bridget McKenzie and Ross Cadell. Only Susan McDonald’s seat is considered safe, as it is not up for re-election, highlighting the precarious nature of their parliamentary representation.
6Historical Resilience vs Reality
Historian Stephen Wilks notes the party has survived since 1920 by adapting from a farmers' party to a broader rural advocate. However, the current populist wave mirrors the early Country Party’s anti-political roots. The Nationals must now prove they can govern effectively while their opponents capitalize on generalized voter resentment and regional grievances.
7Coalition Dynamics and Trends
Analyst Antony Green points out that the Nationals historically hold a higher share of Coalition seats when in opposition. While they secured nearly 36% of Coalition seats in 2025, falling primary votes in New South Wales suggest this success masks underlying weakness. The party’s future depends on individual MPs embedding themselves within their communities.
8Future Outlook for 2028
Predicting the 2028 landscape remains difficult, but the Nationals face a significant challenge in eastern states. Their survival depends on local candidate strength and Labor party preferences. Whether the party can defy these existential trends or succumb to the populist shift remains the central question for Australia’s conservative rural political landscape.