# Do Referees Favor Home Teams in Football?

We analyzed referee bias towards home teams using extensive match data from European leagues.

- **Source:** [Towards Data Science](https://towardsdatascience.com)
- **Published:** 2026-08-04
- **Topic:** [Business](https://brifing.si/c/business)
- **Original article:** <https://towardsdatascience.com/are-home-teams-favoured-by-referees-in-football-soccer/>
- **On Brifing:** https://brifing.si/s/69f1f800-6f33-4dee-8b7e-960af0088cfe

## Data-Driven Approach to Football Debates

Football fans often show bias when judging referee decisions. Supporters of different teams can interpret the same foul completely differently. This study analyzed over 100,000 matches across 14 European leagues from 2017-2023 seasons. Data was sourced from football-data.co.uk, focusing on matches with consistent foul/yellow card recording.

## Methodology

The study used 'cards per foul' ratio rather than just yellow card counts, providing clearer insight into referee behavior. Additional factors like match predictions from betting odds, possession percentages, and halftime scores were controlled. COVID-era matches played without spectators were analyzed separately.

## Foul Distribution Across Leagues

Portugal's Primeira Liga leads with 29.4 fouls per match, followed by Italy's Serie B and Spain's La Liga. Northern European leagues (Premier League, Eredivisie) show fewer interruptions (21-22 fouls/match). Interestingly, home teams commit more fouls in Spain, Portugal and Turkey.

## Home Advantage in Yellow Cards

Consistently across all leagues, away teams receive 0.15-0.34 more yellow cards per match. This difference was highest in English Championship (0.34) and lowest in Serie A (0.15). When examining cards per foul ratio, home teams received 7.4% fewer punishments.

## Impact of Empty Stadiums

Matches played without spectators during COVID-19 provided crucial data on fan influence. Home advantage decreased significantly in empty stadiums, with the cards per foul difference dropping to 4.8%. This supports the theory of referee susceptibility to crowd pressure.

## Effect of Team Reputation

The analysis didn't confirm claims that 'big clubs get favorable treatment'. In Premier League, teams like Manchester City and Liverpool showed average cards per foul ratios. Barcelona received 6.2% fewer cards in Spain, but this wasn't statistically significant.

## Playing Style Factor

Teams with more possession naturally commit fewer fouls. However, data shows home teams receive fewer cards even with low possession. In Serie A, home teams with just 40% possession still received 5.8% fewer cards than away teams.

## Match Situation Influence

Halftime score significantly affects referee decisions. Teams trailing tend to play more aggressively. Yet home teams received fewer cards even when behind, with the difference increasing in second halves.

## Cultural Differences

Southern European leagues (Italy, Spain, Portugal) show higher foul counts but lower card tendencies. Northern leagues have fewer fouls but higher cards per foul ratios, possibly reflecting different football cultures.

## Referee Experience Matters

Comparing referees with over 300 matches to newcomers, experienced officials showed less home-away bias. UEFA's elite referees maintained just 2.1% home advantage in cards per foul ratio.

## VAR Impact

Matches using Video Assistant Referee technology showed reduced home advantage. Particularly in penalty decisions, home team penalty awards dropped from 14.3% to 9.7% with VAR intervention, demonstrating technology's role in reducing human bias.

## Conclusion and Football's Future

Data confirms referees show slight subconscious bias toward home teams (7.4% card advantage), though less than expected. Technological advancements (VAR, AI analysis) may further reduce this bias. Football authorities should incorporate these findings into referee training programs.

## Sources covering this story

- https://towardsdatascience.com/are-home-teams-favoured-by-referees-in-football-soccer/ — 

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_Summary written by Brifing from the original reporting. Copyright in the original article belongs to its publisher; read the full piece at the link above._