India’s Russian Crude Imports Decline Amid Geopolitical Instability
Rising prices and Middle East conflict drive a 13% drop in September imports.
1September Import Contraction
India experienced a 13 percent decline in Russian crude imports during September, marking the second consecutive monthly drop. This volume represents the lowest intake since April. The reduction is largely attributed to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, which have significantly disrupted critical trade routes through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.
2Refinery Specific Reductions
Major Indian refineries reported significant decreases in their Russian crude intake during the period. Reliance-run Jamnagar refinery saw imports fall by 27 percent, while Indian Oil Corporation's Paradip facility recorded a 21 percent decline. Additionally, Nayara Energy's Vadinar refinery reduced its intake by 8 percent, reflecting a broader trend across India's energy sector.
3Strategic Market Positioning
Despite the decline, India remained Russia's second-largest fossil fuel buyer in September, purchasing 4.1 billion euros worth of hydrocarbons. Crude oil accounted for 88 percent of these imports. Since December 2022, India has absorbed 37 percent of Russia's total crude exports, trailing only China, which currently accounts for 50 percent of the volume.
4Urals Price Volatility
The average price of Russia’s Urals-grade crude surged by 32 percent month-on-month in September, reaching 90.7 USD per barrel. This figure represents the highest monthly average since April 2026. Notably, this price is more than double the EU and UK price cap of 44.1 USD per barrel, which remains enforced under current sanctions.
5Executive Order Intervention
US President Donald Trump issued an executive order waiving various sanctions and tariffs linked to Russian oil exports. This decision, cited as being in the national interest, allows India and China to maintain current import levels. The order was signed just one day before previously established restrictions were scheduled to take full effect.
6Strait of Hormuz Impact
Global fossil fuel prices remained elevated throughout September despite a 60 percent month-on-month increase in oil volumes transported through the Strait of Hormuz. These transit levels remain significantly lower than those recorded prior to the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, indicating continued supply chain fragility and persistent upward pressure on global energy costs.
7Revenue Gains for Russia
The ongoing energy crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has provided a substantial financial boost to Russia. Analysis indicates that in the six months following the US-Israel strikes on Iran, higher global oil and gas prices have increased Russia’s seaborne export revenues by an estimated 35.9 billion USD, strengthening their fiscal position despite international sanctions.
8Concentrated Export Dependencies
Russia’s fossil fuel export strategy remains highly concentrated among a narrow set of key customers. China dominates purchases of coal and crude oil, while Turkiye leads in oil product imports. Meanwhile, the EU remains the primary buyer of LNG and pipeline gas, highlighting Moscow’s continued reliance on a limited group of international trade partners.