# Brazil's New Congress and the Future of Coalition Presidentialism

Sociologist Sérgio Abranches analyzes the governance challenges facing Lula's administration until 2027.

- **Source:** [G1 – Política](https://g1.globo.com/politica)
- **Published:** 2026-11-09
- **Topic:** [politics](https://brifing.si/c/politics)
- **Original article:** <https://g1.globo.com/podcast/o-assunto/noticia/2026/11/09/o-novo-congresso-e-o-futuro-do-presidencialismo-o-assunto-1841.ghtml>
- **On Brifing:** https://brifing.si/s/6b2c9422-b706-4357-a430-bd63363645ee

## Shifting Legislative Power Dynamics

The recent election results granted the Liberal Party (PL) the largest representation in both the Chamber and the Senate. Despite this right-leaning legislative shift, Lula secured a solid presidential victory with a four-million-vote lead. These opposing forces must now navigate a complex coexistence starting in 2027 to ensure national governability.

## The Coalition Presidentialism Framework

Sociologist Sérgio Abranches, who coined the term 'coalition presidentialism' in 1988, examines the current political landscape. He evaluates how the executive branch manages legislative support through strategic alliances. This framework remains essential for understanding how the president builds consensus within a fragmented Congress to pass critical government agendas and policies.

## Senate Leadership and Strategic Maneuvers

Davi Alcolumbre, representing União-AP, is actively seeking reelection as President of the Senate. To solidify his position, he is accelerating key legislative items, including the Public Security PEC. These tactical moves serve as signals to the current administration, demonstrating his capacity to facilitate government priorities while securing his own political future.

## Chamber of Deputies Alliance Building

Hugo Motta, the current President of the Chamber from the Republicans-PB, is working to construct a broad alliance. His objective is to ensure his reelection by consolidating support across various political factions. This effort highlights the ongoing negotiations within the 'Centrão' bloc as they maneuver to occupy influential power positions.

## Supreme Court and Political Correlation

The Supreme Tribunal Federal (STF) plays a significant role in the current correlation of political forces. Abranches analyzes how judicial interventions influence the legislative environment and the executive's ability to govern. The court's involvement remains a critical factor in the ongoing power struggles between the government, the opposition, and legislative leaders.

## Potential Electoral System Reforms

Discussions regarding the implementation of a mixed-member proportional representation system are currently underway. There is a possibility that this electoral reform could be approved within the current year. Such a change would fundamentally alter how future representatives are elected, potentially impacting the balance of power between established parties and new political movements.

## Governance Challenges Until 2027

Lula faces the challenge of maintaining governability while dealing with a Congress that leans significantly to the right. The administration must balance its policy goals with the demands of various political actors who control the legislative agenda. These arrangements are already being drawn as parties prepare for the upcoming legislative term.

## Context of Political Realignment

The political landscape is defined by the need for constant negotiation between the executive and legislative branches. As the government, opposition, and Centrão move to secure their influence, the stability of the coalition remains the primary focus. Observers are monitoring these developments closely to gauge the effectiveness of Brazil's governance model.

## Sources covering this story

- https://g1.globo.com/podcast/o-assunto/noticia/2026/11/09/o-novo-congresso-e-o-futuro-do-presidencialismo-o-assunto-1841.ghtml — 

---

_Summary written by Brifing from the original reporting. Copyright in the original article belongs to its publisher; read the full piece at the link above._
