Why chasing Bitcoin's 'absolute bottom' is a flawed strategy
Analysts suggest gradual accumulation during Bitcoin's new capitulation phase presents long-term opportunity.
1Bitcoin profitability at 3-year low
CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin's supply in profit ratio dropped to 51.4% - the lowest level since early 2023. Approximately 48.6% of circulating coins are in loss, calculated via UTXO methodology. Historically, such levels signaled capitulation phases followed by accumulation periods. When similar levels occurred in early 2023, Bitcoin traded between $16,000-$20,000.
2The fallacy of chasing 'absolute bottom'
CryptoQuant analysts consider attempts to pinpoint Bitcoin's exact bottom as strategic mistakes. Historical data shows supply profitability below 55% typically precedes extended accumulation periods. Weak hands exiting positions at loss creates buying opportunities for strong investors. Most retail investors leave markets during such fear-driven phases.
3Swan Bitcoin CEO's 2026-2028 projection
Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten predicts potential bottom in October 2026. Following Bitcoin's October 2025 all-time high of $126,000, he expects the typical 12-month bear market cycle. Klippsten forecasts $130,000 levels ahead of 2028 halving. However, he cautions against overgeneralizing from limited historical cycles.
4How UTXO analysis works
UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) methodology compares a Bitcoin's last moved price with current market value. This determines which coins are in profit/loss. Analysts term weak investors selling at loss as 'capitulation.' Strong hands accumulating these coins initiates new market cycles. The process reflects natural market Darwinism.
5What historical cycles reveal
Bitcoin historically experiences 12-month bear markets post all-time highs: 87% drop after 2013 peak, 84% after 2017, 77% following 2021's $69,000 high. This pattern supports 2026 bottom expectations after 2025 peak. However, each cycle exhibits unique characteristics. Macroeconomic factors increasingly influence crypto markets alongside internal dynamics.
6The upcoming halving impact
2028's Bitcoin halving (block reward halving) typically triggers price rallies due to supply shock. Post-halving periods historically see new highs within 12-18 months: 9,000% after 2012, 2,900% after 2016, 700% following 2020 halving. Klippsten's $130,000 projection aligns with this cyclical pattern, accounting for diminishing percentage returns.
7US regulatory pressure on Bitcoin
Analysts note US regulatory uncertainty and tax policies suppress institutional Bitcoin demand. Delayed ETF approvals and crypto exchange lawsuits undermine investor confidence. However, growing traditional finance interest in crypto presents long-term adoption potential. Institutional infrastructure development continues despite short-term headwinds.
8Strategic advice for investors
Experts recommend dollar-cost averaging (DCA) over short-term price predictions. Current capitulation may last 6-18 months, making gradual accumulation optimal. Historical data shows attempting to time bottoms often causes more harm than good. Long-term portfolio construction remains the most effective volatility management strategy in crypto's cyclical markets.
Original article: INCRYPTED — Bitcoin'de 'mutlak dip' arayışı neden yanlış?