PP and Vox Projected to Secure Absolute Majority in Spanish General Election
New daily tracking poll shows conservative coalition leading comfortably ahead of November 29 vote.
1Right-Wing Coalition Majority
The Partido Popular and Vox are projected to secure an absolute majority in the November 29 general election. Current polling indicates a combined total of 189 to 202 seats, comfortably surpassing the 176-seat threshold required for a stable government. This outcome reflects a significant shift in the Spanish political landscape.
2PP Leads Voting Intentions
Alberto Nunez Feijoo’s Partido Popular enters the campaign with a 30.8% voting intention, translating to 126 to 132 seats. This performance gives the party a five-point lead over the PSOE. The data suggests a strong consolidation of conservative support as the official campaign period begins across the country.
3PSOE Struggles with Loyalty
Pedro Sanchez’s PSOE faces a decline to 25.3% support, yielding only 103 to 108 seats. Voter loyalty is notably low, with only 62.6% of 2023 supporters intending to vote for the party again. Nearly 900,000 voters are shifting between political blocs, further weakening the incumbent government’s chances of re-election.
4Vox Gains Momentum
Vox has climbed to 19.6% in voting intentions, potentially securing between 63 and 70 seats. This growth is supported by a high influx of voters who abstained in the previous July 23 election. The party’s rising popularity is a critical component of the projected conservative majority in the parliament.
5Left-Wing Fragmentation Impact
The Frente Amplio coalition is projected to receive 7.3% of the vote, resulting in 13 to 15 seats. Meanwhile, Podemos faces a collapse, with only 1.4% support, leaving them without parliamentary representation. This internal division on the left significantly undermines the potential for a successful coalition government led by Sanchez.
6Regional Shifts in Power
Regional dynamics show ERC leading Junts in Catalonia with 8 to 9 seats. In the Basque Country, EH Bildu is outperforming the PNV, aiming for 6 to 8 representatives. Additionally, the emergence of Adelante Andalucia with 2% support creates further challenges for the PSOE in its traditional stronghold of Andalusia.
7Methodology and Data Scope
The survey conducted between November 3 and 11 utilized a sample of 3,870 interviews, with 750 added daily. The methodology combines telephone and online techniques to reach voters aged 18 and older. With a 2.1% margin of error, the data captures recent events like high-profile media appearances and political absences.
8Electoral Participation Trends
Estimated participation stands at 76.7%, with only 11.1% of the electorate remaining undecided. Higher turnout appears to favor the right-wing bloc, as 20.7% of previous non-voters now lean toward Vox. This trend suggests that increased engagement in the upcoming election is likely to solidify the projected conservative parliamentary victory.