# Adif Forecasts Rail Reliability Decline Through 2030 State rail manager admits maintenance failures and rising traffic incidents in new agreement. - **Source:** [El Mundo – España](https://www.elmundo.es/espana) - **Published:** 2026-11-05 - **Topic:** [Business](https://brifing.si/c/business) - **Original article:** - **On Brifing:** https://brifing.si/s/7502d59b-7ce5-4b2e-82de-b111b88564a6 ## Systemic Reliability Decline Adif, the Spanish state rail infrastructure manager, has released a new agreement with the government projecting a significant decline in network reliability through 2030. The document acknowledges that traffic-affecting incidents will rise by 20%, climbing from 7,355 projected for 2025 to 8,799 by 2030, signaling ongoing operational instability across the national rail network. ## Maintenance Target Failures The infrastructure manager admits it will fail to meet preventive maintenance objectives annually. Despite increased funding, conventional network compliance will cap at 90%, showing no improvement over five years. High-speed rail maintenance, previously meeting 99% of targets, is expected to drop below 96%, raising concerns following recent accidents in Adamuz and Urda. ## Operator Criticism Intensifies Major rail operators, including Renfe, Iryo, and Ouigo, have issued harsh critiques regarding the new agreement. They argue that the document normalizes service degradation rather than addressing it. Renfe specifically highlighted a generalized worsening of service indicators, while Iryo noted that the agreement sets less ambitious goals than those originally established for the network. ## Surging Impunctuality Rates The agreement forecasts a sharp rise in delays across all service types. Long-distance train delays exceeding 10 minutes are expected to increase by 34%, while medium-distance services face a 42% rise. High-speed rail faces the most drastic outlook, with 2026 impunctuality projected at 16.9%, nearly triple the 4.76% rate recorded in the previous year. ## Safety Probability Concerns Statistical projections for safety show a negative trend, with the accident rate per million train-kilometers rising from 0.011 in 2025 to 0.025 this year. While the absolute probability of an accident remains low, the upward trajectory reflects a lack of improvement in safety standards, drawing sharp scrutiny from both public and private operators. ## Political Leadership Turmoil The document was finalized by Pedro Marco de la Peñia just before his resignation, coinciding with a broader leadership shakeup at Adif. Carlos Cuerpo, the new Minister of Transport, faces immediate pressure following the departure of Óscar Puente. Internal reports suggest staff concerns regarding a culture of silence and politically motivated appointments within the organization. ## Lack of Efficiency Metrics Ouigo has criticized the agreement for failing to define a clear baseline or an annual path for reducing unit costs. The absence of specific indicators to measure efficiency makes it difficult for operators to hold the infrastructure manager accountable. This lack of transparency complicates the long-term planning required for competitive rail services. ## Long-term Strategic Implications The normalization of infrastructure deterioration presents a critical challenge for Spain's rail sector. By admitting that 2030 targets will remain below original expectations, the government faces potential long-term damage to service quality. The inability to meet maintenance goals suggests that current funding models may be insufficient to reverse the ongoing systemic decline. ## Sources covering this story - https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2026/11/04/6aeb8622e4d4d84d628b45a2.html — --- _Summary written by Brifing from the original reporting. Copyright in the original article belongs to its publisher; read the full piece at the link above._