Prediction Markets Turn Bearish on Clarity Act
The bill is unlikely to become law by 2026.
1Bearish Sentiment on Clarity Act
Prediction markets are skeptical about the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becoming law by 2026. Polymarket traders price the odds of enactment by December 31, 2026, at just 39%.
2Expectations for Senate Vote
On Kalshi, traders set a 67.8% chance that the Senate will hold a recorded vote on the Clarity Act before the August recess. This reflects strong confidence in Senate action.
3Broader Crypto Market Structure
Another Kalshi market questions whether crypto market structure legislation will become federal law. Traders price a 61% chance of enactment before April 1, 2027.
4Current Status of the Bill
The Clarity Act passed the House in July 2025 and was reported out by the Senate Banking Committee in June 2026 with amendments. It now awaits action on the Legislative Calendar.
5Supporters and Critics
The bill has backing from the Trump administration and lawmakers like Sen. Cynthia Lummis. Critics, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, warn that DeFi carve-outs could weaken anti-money laundering efforts.
6Implications for Traders
Traders expect the Senate to vote but remain doubtful about the bill becoming law by year-end. Congress's history of stalling crypto legislation supports this cautious outlook.
Original article: Bitcoin News — Tahmin Piyasaları Clarity Yasası'na Karşı İhtiyatlı