# Prediction Markets Turn Bearish on Clarity Act The bill is unlikely to become law by 2026. - **Source:** [Bitcoin News](https://brifing.si/source/d8aeaf1e-9839-4dad-9d25-7a6bf3fbeef8) - **Published:** 2026-07-19 - **Topic:** [Finance](https://brifing.si/c/finance) - **Original article:** - **On Brifing:** https://brifing.si/s/791ea105-edf2-4487-ad68-98622898a6db ## Bearish Sentiment on Clarity Act Prediction markets are skeptical about the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becoming law by 2026. Polymarket traders price the odds of enactment by December 31, 2026, at just 39%. ## Expectations for Senate Vote On Kalshi, traders set a 67.8% chance that the Senate will hold a recorded vote on the Clarity Act before the August recess. This reflects strong confidence in Senate action. ## Broader Crypto Market Structure Another Kalshi market questions whether crypto market structure legislation will become federal law. Traders price a 61% chance of enactment before April 1, 2027. ## Current Status of the Bill The Clarity Act passed the House in July 2025 and was reported out by the Senate Banking Committee in June 2026 with amendments. It now awaits action on the Legislative Calendar. ## Supporters and Critics The bill has backing from the Trump administration and lawmakers like Sen. Cynthia Lummis. Critics, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, warn that DeFi carve-outs could weaken anti-money laundering efforts. ## Implications for Traders Traders expect the Senate to vote but remain doubtful about the bill becoming law by year-end. Congress's history of stalling crypto legislation supports this cautious outlook. ## Sources covering this story - https://news.bitcoin.com/prediction-market-traders-turn-bearish-on-clarity-act-becoming-law-in-2026/ — --- _Summary written by Brifing from the original reporting. Copyright in the original article belongs to its publisher; read the full piece at the link above._