The Long Road Towards 6G: Spectrum, Investment and 5G Completion
Strategic planning for 6G requires harmonized spectrum policies and sustained infrastructure investment through 2040.
1Evolutionary Mobile Generations
Mobile generations are not isolated events but part of a long-term evolution requiring years of coordination. While 6G is expected to reach five billion connections by 2040, the industry anticipates a coexistence period with 5G between 2035 and 2037. Current policy decisions directly influence future network capacity and global access levels.
2Harmonization and Foundational Parameters
Global success for 6G depends on harmonizing foundational parameters including spectrum, standards, and policy. This does not require identical global implementation but necessitates agreement on technical frameworks. Current efforts include finalizing 3GPP standards and securing access to 200–400 MHz channels, which are essential for higher data rates and AI-native services.
3Maturation of 5G Networks
Since its 2018 launch, 5G has grown to approximately 350 networks globally, with connections expected to surpass 4G later this decade. Continued investment in 5G standalone and 5G-Advanced architectures is critical to stimulate traffic growth. Without additional spectrum, over 50% of the world's urban population faces significant capacity constraints by 2030.
4Expanding Data Consumption Drivers
Network quality and data consumption are intrinsically linked as faster networks enable more intensive applications. With 8.8 billion mobile connections serving 5.8 billion unique subscribers, the gap between people and devices is widening. Future environments involving vehicles, sensors, and machines will drive connection growth significantly faster than the human user base.
5Spectrum Policy Strategic Goals
Effective 6G spectrum policy must balance maximum speeds with sufficient capacity in high-demand areas. Mid-band spectrum is vital for capacity, while low-band spectrum remains necessary for maintaining geographic parity between urban and rural regions. Policymakers must prioritize long-term economic and social value over short-term revenue gains from high-cost spectrum license auctions.
6Lessons from Historical Auctions
History shows that prioritizing upfront auction revenues can hinder network investment, as seen in some 3G and 5G awards. Fragmented 3.5 GHz auctions without clear roadmaps created unnecessary costs for operators seeking contiguous 100 MHz channels. Future policy must avoid artificial constraints and high reserve prices to encourage necessary infrastructure deployment.
7Projected Spectrum Requirements
Analysis indicates that markets will require 2–2.5 GHz of mid-band spectrum by 2040, with high-demand markets needing up to 3.3 GHz. Operators do not require all this capacity immediately, but a credible roadmap provides visibility for long-term planning. Widespread harmonization will deliver economies of scale and help keep consumer devices affordable.
8Economic Impact of Connectivity
The decisions made regarding spectrum, standards, and infrastructure will determine the reach of 6G benefits. Creating a sustainable and equitable environment serves as a platform for economic opportunity throughout the 2030s. By fostering investment today, governments ensure that future networks can support the next generation of digital productivity and growth.