Turning Point's $50M Midterm Push Targets Key GOP Battlegrounds
Conservative group plans massive spending in NH, AZ, and NV to shape 2024 political landscape.
1Massive GOP Investment
Turning Point USA plans to spend $50 million in the 2024 midterms, focusing on three key states: New Hampshire, Arizona, and Nevada. The conservative group will deploy field staff across seven additional states. Their super PAC alone will spend $15-20 million on ads in priority states, while their nonprofit arm handles ground operations. This comes as Republicans aim to counter Democratic momentum in Senate races.
2New Hampshire Showdown
The NH Senate race is critical for both parties, with Democrats needing to hold retiring Jeanne Shaheen's seat. Former GOP Senator John Sununu faces Democratic Rep Chris Pappas. Cook Political Report rates it Lean Democrat. Turning Point sees this as a must-win to prevent Democratic Senate control. The state's electoral significance extends to 2028 presidential calculations, where it could offset traditional blue-wall states.
3Arizona Governor's Race
Turning Point is heavily invested in Arizona's gubernatorial race between Democrat Katie Hobbs and Trump-endorsed Andy Biggs. Biggs gained notoriety for supporting Trump's 2020 election fraud claims. The group believes flipping this seat could reshape Arizona's political landscape long-term. Their investment includes digital ads and voter mobilization efforts targeting Trump's base in the state.
4Trump's Shadow Campaign
Trump's political operation is spending $10M in Texas through MAGA Inc, plus $47M across six Senate races via No Going Back PAC. While coordination with Turning Point isn't formal, they share voter data to optimize outreach. Trump's team sees midterms as building blocks for 2028, with Turning Point focusing on turning out Trump voters who often skip midterms.
5Fundraising Frenzy
The RNC is hosting high-dollar donor events in Texas, with $250,000 tickets for Trump roundtables and $88,600 for photos. VP Vance's events cost $75,000 per seat. These prices are actually reduced from typical $1M MAGA Inc fundraisers, aiming for volume. Proceeds will support vulnerable Republicans like Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton in tight races.
6Republican Dilemma
With Trump's approval at 40%, Republicans face risks associating with his Iran war baggage and resulting inflation. The Texas convention aims to boost candidates while distancing from unpopular policies. Strategists note the challenge: mobilize base without alienating swing voters. Some candidates are skipping events to avoid close Trump ties hurting their campaigns.
7Long-Term Strategy
Turning Point's midterm spending is actually infrastructure-building for 2028. By focusing on NH, AZ and NV now, they aim to create permanent Republican advantages. The group believes winning these states could offset losses in traditional blue-wall states later. Their field operations specifically target sporadic Trump voters to improve GOP midterm turnout.
8Political Arms Race
The $50M investment reflects escalating campaign costs, where Senate races now routinely exceed $100M. Democrats currently lead in small-dollar donations, forcing Republicans to rely more on megadonors. This spending surge could reshape down-ballot races too, as groups like Turning Point expand beyond presidential cycles into sustained political warfare.
Original article: Wired — Turning Point's $50M Midterm Push Targets Key GOP Battlegrounds