Critica Targets $2.7B Valuation for Jupiter Rare Earths Project
Western Australia's Jupiter project aims to become a major global rare earth supplier.
1Jupiter Project Economic Potential
Critica Limited released a scoping study for its Jupiter project in Western Australia, projecting a pre-tax net present value of $2.67 billion. The operation targets an eight per cent discount rate with a 56 per cent internal rate of return. Initial capital expenditure is estimated at A$555.5 million, with payback expected within two years.
2Operational Scale and Resources
The project plans an eight-million-tonne-a-year open-pit operation over a 14-year mine life. It targets 107.3 million tonnes of ore at 1879 ppm TREO, with 97 per cent classified as indicated resources. This represents only six per cent of the total 1.7-billion-tonne resource, providing significant potential for future mine-life extensions and resource conversion.
3Processing and Metallurgical Strategy
Critica employs a beneficiation-first approach, utilizing magnetic separation and flotation to concentrate rare earths before hydrometallurgy. This method achieves a 14-fold TREO upgrade while rejecting 95 per cent of feed mass. Such efficiency significantly reduces downstream plant requirements and operational costs, focusing on neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and yttrium production.
4Government Incentives and Revenue
The economic model incorporates the Australian Government’s Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive, offering a 10 per cent refundable offset on eligible processing expenditure. This could provide up to $264.1 million in benefits over 10 years. The project is expected to generate $12.3 billion in total sales revenue over its 14-year operational life.
5Strategic Global Supply Context
The study arrives as global governments prioritize diversifying rare earth supply chains away from China. Demand for magnet rare earths has doubled since 2015, with projections indicating a further 30 per cent increase by 2030. Australia’s Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve further supports the development of domestic projects like Jupiter to meet this demand.
6Development Timeline and Milestones
Critica has outlined a structured development path, scheduling a prefeasibility study between early 2027 and mid-2028. A definitive feasibility study will follow, concluding by the end of 2029. Construction is slated to begin in 2030, with the company aiming for the first mixed rare earth carbonate production and sales by 2032.
7Infrastructure and Regional Advantage
Located 70km south-west of Mount Magnet and 270km from Geraldton, the site benefits from proximity to existing road, gas, and power infrastructure. As the largest clay-hosted rare earth resource in Australia, Jupiter serves as a cornerstone of the broader Brothers project, potentially unlocking a larger district-scale play for the company.
8Path to Project Realization
While the scoping study provides compelling preliminary economics, Critica emphasizes that no official reserve has been declared. Future success depends on ongoing drilling, resource conversion, and securing necessary funding and offtake partnerships. The company must now transition these study figures into a tangible, operational asset to meet its long-term production targets.