Victorian Labor Faces Potential Electoral Collapse Ahead of November 28 Poll
Recent polling indicates a historic decline for the incumbent government as support craters.
1Historic Polling Decline
With the November 28 Victorian election approaching, Labor faces a potential electoral wipeout. Recent DemosAU polling shows Labor’s primary vote plunging to 18%, a seven-point drop since September. Meanwhile, the Resolve poll places Labor at 22%, tied for its lowest record. The Coalition currently leads with 55–56% of the two-party vote.
2Leadership Approval Crisis
Premier Ben Carroll’s net positivity score has slumped significantly, dropping 16 points to -30 in the latest DemosAU data. Conversely, Liberal leader Jess Wilson has seen her approval rise to a record high of +24 in Resolve polling. Voters increasingly favor Wilson over Carroll in head-to-head preferred premier metrics.
3Union Support Withdrawal
Labor’s relationship with key unions has deteriorated rapidly during the campaign. The Australian Services Union is running negative advertisements, while the Electrical Trades Union has diverted funds to support witnesses in the Big Build royal commission. Additionally, public sector, education, and firefighter unions have officially withdrawn their support for the party.
4Royal Commission Impact
The royal commission into the Big Build infrastructure project has commenced public hearings, keeping corruption allegations in the spotlight. Although Premier Carroll initiated the inquiry upon taking office, analysts suggest the timing has inadvertently damaged his campaign. The ongoing revelations have further alienated voters and complicated Labor’s efforts to project stability.
5Shifting Electoral Dynamics
The Coalition has gained momentum, with primary support rising to 33% in DemosAU polling. Analysts suggest the Coalition may secure a majority of the 88 lower house seats independently. This shift reduces the impact of Labor’s warnings regarding a potential Liberal-One Nation partnership, as voters appear increasingly comfortable with a Coalition government.
6Strategic Preference Deals
The Liberals have decided to preference One Nation above Labor in most seats, a move that could jeopardize Labor incumbents. In the seat of Niddrie, Premier Carroll faces a difficult defense. Simultaneously, Labor’s decision to run an open ticket in the inner-city seat of Prahran has frustrated progressive voters and potential allies.
7Candidate and System Changes
A total of 734 candidates are contesting the 88 lower house seats, averaging 8.3 per seat. Upper house reforms, specifically the removal of group ticket voting, have caused the number of candidates to drop to 303. This is the lowest figure since 2010, significantly reducing the number of groups per region.
8Long-Term Governing Fatigue
Labor has governed Victoria for 12 of the last 27 years, leading to significant voter fatigue. Premier Carroll’s attempt to distance himself from predecessors Daniel Andrews and Jacinta Allan has failed to resonate. As the election nears, the party struggles to retain its traditional base while facing challenges from both sides.