# Bitcoin may have bottomed before its traditional cycle low: Grayscale Grayscale research suggests Bitcoin price may have bottomed early due to macroeconomic factors. - **Source:** [Cointelegraph.com News](https://brifing.si/source/2e81e982-0137-4db0-8ac2-351f37085775) - **Published:** 2026-07-23 - **Topic:** [Finance](https://brifing.si/c/finance) - **Original article:** - **On Brifing:** https://brifing.si/s/9960ebc5-8bd4-4ea6-8ae6-f30165e2a9b1 ## Bitcoin's unusual bottom signal Grayscale research posits Bitcoin may have bottomed before its traditional 4-year cycle. This potential early bottom suggests maturity as an asset, with analysts linking it to record Bitcoin holdings by long-term investors. ## Macro factors in the driver's seat Grayscale's Pandl emphasizes Bitcoin now shows stronger correlation with macroeconomic indicators like Fed rate decisions. Rising real interest rates and slowing economic growth have historically coincided with Bitcoin bear markets. ## What market data reveals K33 data shows over 50% of Bitcoin supply is held at a loss - historically a bottom signal. Swan Bitcoin's CEO notes all-time high long-term holder accumulation of 14.7M BTC also indicates an approaching bottom. ## The Fed's pivotal role July 29 Fed rate decision could be pivotal. CME Fedwatch shows 66% chance rates remain unchanged. Pandl suggests Bitcoin may bottom when "macro factors begin to improve," potentially marking a turnaround. ## Regulatory overhang Pandl warns Bitcoin could "decline moderately further" if CLARITY Act fails to pass. Some analysts project bottom may extend to late 2026, tied to corporate treasury deleveraging cycles. ## Implications for investors While experts believe Bitcoin is in late bear market stages, regulations and macro conditions may sustain near-term volatility. Grayscale's analysis indicates Bitcoin is evolving beyond traditional patterns into an institutional asset class. ## Sources covering this story - https://cointelegraph.com/markets/grayscale-bitcoins-price-bottomed?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound — --- _Summary written by Brifing from the original reporting. Copyright in the original article belongs to its publisher; read the full piece at the link above._