The Search for Xi Jinping's Successor in China
Beijing is cultivating a pool of potential leaders through strategic provincial personnel shifts.
1Succession Uncertainty Persists
Since removing presidential term limits, Xi Jinping has faced intense scrutiny regarding his eventual successor. While he has purged several potential candidates, the absence of a clearly designated heir remains a defining feature of current Chinese politics. Observers now look toward the upcoming 21st National Congress for potential clues about future leadership.
2Strategic Personnel Reshuffling
Recent months have seen an accelerated rotation of provincial party secretaries and governors across China. Officials born between 1964 and 1969 are increasingly securing party secretary roles, while those born in the 1970s are filling governorships. This systematic movement suggests a deliberate effort to groom a new generation of senior officials.
3Emerging Generational Shift
A clear generational transition is underway within the Chinese Communist Party. Figures like Zhu Zhongming, born in 1972, and others born in the 1970s, are moving into core senior positions. These individuals, once labeled young cadres, now form a growing cohort that will likely dominate the 21st Central Committee's future composition.
4Defining Leadership Criteria
Xi Jinping demands loyalty, professional competence, and risk-management skills from his subordinates. However, choosing a successor requires balancing these traits with the need to protect his political legacy. He seeks a leader who is strong enough to control the complex party-state apparatus but remains ideologically predictable after his own retirement.
5The Legacy Dilemma
Xi faces a significant challenge in ensuring his successor does not repudiate his policies. History shows that supreme power often alters political behavior, as seen with previous leaders like Khrushchev or Deng Xiaoping. Consequently, Xi must find a candidate who will preserve his name, theory, and political line indefinitely.
6Testing Grounds for Candidates
To evaluate potential successors, Beijing places promising officials in demanding posts such as Shanghai, Guangdong, and Zhejiang. These regions serve as critical testing grounds for performance during economic downturns or social unrest. Success in these high-stakes roles is essential for any official hoping to be considered for the top leadership position.
7Avoiding Early Designation
Xi is unlikely to name a specific successor soon, as doing so could create a competing center of power. By maintaining a pool of candidates rather than a single heir, he preserves his own authority. This strategy allows him to observe how various officials perform before making any final, long-term decisions.
8Future Leadership Outlook
The 21st Party Congress will likely reveal the final stretch of the race rather than a definitive successor. If Xi remains in power until 2037, the next leader will likely be aged between 65 and 70. This age profile may offer Xi the stability he desires for his enduring political legacy.
Original article: Foreign Policy — The Search for Xi Jinping's Successor in China