# Bitwise Raises Long-Term Bitcoin Price Target to $1.6 Million by 2036 Institutional adoption and currency debasement drive Bitwise's updated decade-long bitcoin valuation model. - **Source:** [Bitcoin News](https://brifing.si/source/d8aeaf1e-9839-4dad-9d25-7a6bf3fbeef8) - **Published:** 2026-10-30 - **Topic:** [Finance](https://brifing.si/c/finance) - **Original article:** - **On Brifing:** https://brifing.si/s/9ed2d53c-ffc1-4fa7-9a13-6b5e1a9cadbd ## Revised Long-Term Valuation Bitwise has updated its long-term bitcoin price forecast, projecting a base-case value of $1,599,766 by 2036. This revision increases the target from the previous $1.3 million estimate set for 2035. The new model implies a 34.3% compound annual growth rate, calculated from a reference price of $83,557 as of September 30. ## Market Capture Assumptions The base-case scenario assumes bitcoin will capture 25% of a combined gold-and-bitcoin market. Bitwise projects this total market will expand from $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion over the next decade. Additionally, the model assigns bitcoin 1% of a projected $303.5 trillion institutional investment market to support its long-term valuation. ## Institutional Adoption Resilience Interviews with 15 institutions, including pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, indicate strong conviction. Despite a 50% market decline between October 2025 and April 2026, existing holders maintained their crypto allocations, with several entities increasing their positions. Projections suggest institutional allocations will range between 1% and 5% over the coming decade. ## Supply and Scarcity Dynamics The valuation model distributes the estimated total value across bitcoin’s fixed supply limit of 21 million coins. This calculation accounts for both coins already in circulation and those yet to be mined, alongside an assumption for lost coins. The report currently places the total circulating supply at approximately 20.1 million units. ## Bear and Bull Scenarios Bitwise provides a wide range of outcomes based on varying market adoption levels. In a bear scenario, bitcoin reaches $130,686, reflecting 4.6% annualized growth. Conversely, the bullish scenario projects a price of $3,667,911, assuming bitcoin captures 50% of the store-of-value market and 5% of institutional investment assets, yielding 46% annualized growth. ## Volatility and Market Risks Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen acknowledges that bitcoin will likely remain a volatile asset prone to sharp downturns. However, the firm anticipates these price swings will weaken as institutional adoption deepens. The updated outlook follows a significant 53% decline from the October 2025 high to the June 2026 low point. ## Technological and Security Threats The report identifies quantum computing and AI-assisted mathematical advances as potential threats to bitcoin’s existing cryptography. Bitwise suggests the network will require stronger cryptographic protections to mitigate these risks. Failure to migrate wallets to more secure standards could expose individual holdings to security breaches as quantum technology continues to evolve. ## Macroeconomic Drivers for Growth Rising government debt levels and ongoing currency debasement are cited as primary catalysts for future demand. Bitwise expects these macroeconomic factors to drive investors toward store-of-value assets. By positioning bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currency instability, the firm justifies its increased confidence in the asset's long-term trajectory through 2036. ## Sources covering this story - https://news.bitcoin.com/market-updates/bitcoin-to-1-6-million-bitwise-raises-its-long-term-price-target/ — --- _Summary written by Brifing from the original reporting. Copyright in the original article belongs to its publisher; read the full piece at the link above._