Polls Predict ERC Surge and Vox Gains in Upcoming Catalan Elections
Gabriel Rufián leads ERC to potential 12 seats as PSC faces significant decline.
1ERC Gains Momentum
The GAD3 barometer for ABC indicates that Gabriel Rufián is positioned to secure 12 seats for ERC in the upcoming November 29 elections. This represents a significant increase of five seats compared to the results from three and a half years ago, signaling a strong recovery for the party in national politics.
2PSC Faces Setbacks
Despite remaining the leading force in Catalonia, the PSC is projected to lose three seats, dropping from 19 to 16. Salvador Illa’s party faces declines in key strongholds like Barcelona and Lérida, where internal controversies regarding housing business interests have impacted the party's standing and candidate stability in the region.
3Vox Challenges PP
Vox is expected to see a substantial rise in the Chamber of Deputies, moving from two to six seats. By securing representation in Gerona and Tarragona, the party led by Juan José Aizcorbe in Barcelona would finish just one seat behind the PP, effectively surpassing Junts in total parliamentary representation.
4Junts Electoral Decline
Carles Puigdemont’s party, Junts, faces a challenging electoral outlook with a projected loss of two seats, bringing their total to five. While Míriam Nogueras maintains her position in Barcelona, the party is set to lose representation in Gerona and disappear entirely from Tarragona, weakening their overall influence in the national Congress.
5Collapse of Comuns
The Frente Amplio, previously running as Comuns, faces a catastrophic result according to the latest polling data. Their representation is expected to plummet from seven seats to just two. The party would lose all presence in Gerona and Tarragona, while their Barcelona delegation would shrink from five seats to only two.
6PP Strategic Growth
The PP, led by Xavier García Albiol in Barcelona, is projected to gain one seat, reaching a total of seven. This growth is primarily attributed to gains in Lérida, where the party has seen increased support. However, the party remains unable to secure seats in Gerona or Tarragona despite coalition efforts.
7New Parliamentary Faces
A notable outcome of the projected results is the election of Alejandra Sandoval Villalobos, the Podemos candidate included on the ERC list. Occupying the sixth spot for Barcelona, the current polling suggests her seat is secure, marking a specific shift in the composition of the Catalan delegation within the national parliament.
8Shifting Political Landscape
The overall data points to a decline in independentist strength, falling from 14 to 12 seats, alongside a broader retreat for Catalanist forces like PSC and Frente Amplio. These shifts highlight a volatile political environment where traditional power structures are being reconfigured ahead of the crucial November 29 voting date.