How Trump's immigration policy reshaped US unemployment dynamics
Native-born unemployment rises as shrinking immigrant workforce redefines labor market
1Impact of immigration policy on labor
President Trump's restrictive immigration policies caused net international migration to plummet from 2.7 million in 2024 to 321,000 by mid-2026. Brookings Institute predicts negative net migration this year. This dramatic decline particularly affects sectors like construction, trucking, and healthcare that traditionally relied on immigrant labor. Immigrants' median weekly earnings remain at 85.7% of native-born workers' wages.
2Paradoxical rise in native unemployment
October 2025 data shows foreign-born unemployment dipping below native-born rates. Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi identifies two key factors: First, overall labor demand has declined while native workers comprise a larger share. Second, native workers show little interest in jobs traditionally filled by immigrants. Wage expectations for physically demanding jobs make them uneconomical for employers.
3Sectoral wage disparities
New York Fed data indicates wage growth in public administration and construction sectors, partly due to AI data center demand and government policies. However, most industries have seen slowing wage growth since 2022. Despite construction wage increases, native workers remain reluctant to join this sector.
4Skill and infrastructure barriers
Zandi emphasizes that native workers lack both the skills and inclination for jobs long held by immigrants. Some positions are located in remote areas with poor living infrastructure. While immigrant workers adapted to these conditions, they prove unacceptable for native workers, with no quick solution in sight.
5White House defense
White House spokesperson Kush Desai claims uncontrolled immigration long suppressed American wages. He argues Trump's policies boosted real wages in construction, manufacturing and logistics above average. However, data shows slowing wage growth across most sectors.
6Stagflation risk
Zandi warns current policies carry stagflation risks. The triple supply shock from reduced immigrant labor, tariffs, and the Iran war slows growth while increasing inflation. Zandi notes only AI advancements prevent complete economic collapse.
7Long-term effects
Experts predict immigration policies may reverse within years. Short-term, labor market imbalances will likely push prices upward, especially in immigrant-heavy sectors where production costs rise. These increases will eventually reach consumer prices.
8Searching for economic balance
The US economy seeks solutions to fill the immigrant labor gap. Training programs and wage increases aim to redirect native workers, but experts warn this transition will take time with temporary productivity losses. Policymakers face challenging balancing acts in coming years.
Original article: Fortune — Trump'ın göçmen politikası ABD işsizliğini nasıl etkiledi?