June CPI Data Boosts Bitcoin, but Fed's September Rate Hike Looms
Inflation data lifted Bitcoin, but Fed policy remains uncertain.
1June CPI Data Exceeds Expectations
June CPI data showed a 0.4% monthly decline, the largest drop since April 2020. Annual inflation fell to 3.5%, below market expectations. Bitcoin surged immediately following the release of the data.
2Energy Prices Drive the Decline
The energy index dropped 5.7% in June. Gasoline and fuel oil prices fell by more than 9%, accounting for most of the monthly CPI change. However, core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained flat.
3Impact on Fed Policy
The Fed targets core inflation and services inflation for long-term signals. An energy-driven decline does not directly affect these targets. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates in July and raise them by 25 basis points in September.
4Bitcoin and Risk Appetite
June CPI data supported Bitcoin's rise. However, uncertainty around the Fed's future policy persists. Slowing inflation could sustain risk appetite, but more data is needed to confirm the trend.
5Technical Analysis and Support Levels
Bitcoin's resistance near $64,000 is a key focus. The $62,000 level is seen as a critical reference point for risk management. Altcoins are also moving around their own support and resistance levels.
6Future Scenarios
Inflation slowing in the second half of 2026 could be a positive scenario for risk assets. However, this scenario requires several more months of data. The Fed's September decision will depend on the continuation of the inflation trend.