# IEA Forecasts 4,800GW Renewable Capacity Expansion by 2031 Energy security concerns drive global renewable growth, challenging traditional power generation maps. - **Source:** [edie](https://www.edie.net) - **Published:** 2026-11-09 - **Topic:** [Business](https://brifing.si/c/business) - **Original article:** - **On Brifing:** https://brifing.si/s/b61c3b89-63da-4dd0-86a1-b6d9e971af6a ## Global Capacity Surge The International Energy Agency projects nearly 5,000 gigawatts of new renewable capacity by 2031. This growth represents a 60% increase compared to the previous six-year period. Solar photovoltaics will dominate this expansion, accounting for over three-quarters of new installations, while onshore wind remains the second-largest contributor to the global energy mix. ## Security Over Climate Governments are prioritizing renewable deployment primarily to ensure energy security rather than meeting climate targets. Volatile global markets, exacerbated by disruptions following the Iran war, have pushed nations to reduce reliance on imported fuels. This strategic pivot is fundamentally redrawing the map of power generation across India, Africa, and Southeast Asia. ## Emerging Market Parity For the first time, emerging and developing economies are matching advanced nations in new renewable installations. China remains the largest contributor, though its global share is expected to decline from 60% to 53%. Meanwhile, India is emerging as the world's second-largest growth market, with its total renewable capacity projected to more than double. ## Critical Infrastructure Bottlenecks Despite rapid project development, a massive infrastructure deficit threatens to undermine progress. Currently, 3,000 gigawatts of advanced-stage projects are stalled awaiting grid connections. This backlog is four times the total wind and solar capacity connected last year, highlighting an urgent need for increased investment in electricity grids and faster connection processes. ## Digital and Small-Scale Shifts The report emphasizes the role of digital technologies, including artificial intelligence, in balancing electricity demand with renewable supply. Beyond utility-scale projects, rooftop solar demand is surging among households and small businesses. These small-scale installations have already improved electricity services for approximately 70 million households worldwide, providing a decentralized solution to energy reliability. ## Transport and Supply Chains Renewable energy use in transport is forecast to rise by over 60% by 2031, meeting 6% of global demand. Electric vehicles will account for 45% of this growth, supported by increased biofuel blending mandates in Latin America and Southeast Asia. Additionally, India is doubling its solar module manufacturing share to 17%. ## European Progress Report The European Commission confirmed that EU greenhouse gas emissions fell by 1.6% in 2025, marking a 39% reduction since 1990. Despite this, the bloc must accelerate cuts to meet its 55% reduction target by 2030. Currently, wind and solar capacity in the EU has reached 611 gigawatts, representing half of total generation. ## Future Energy Outlook Renewables currently provide one-third of global electricity, with that share expected to approach 50% within five years. As Fatih Birol noted, the growth story is now truly global, moving beyond major markets. Success depends on overcoming grid delays and ensuring that infrastructure investment keeps pace with the rapid deployment of clean technologies. ## Sources covering this story - https://www.edie.net/iea-predicts-4800gw-of-renewables-to-be-added-through-2031/ — --- _Summary written by Brifing from the original reporting. Copyright in the original article belongs to its publisher; read the full piece at the link above._