After SpaceX, investors set sights on Anthropic and OpenAI
Market experts reveal 3 golden rules for evaluating trillion-dollar IPOs.
1IPO frenzy and FOMO effect
SpaceX's IPO saw over 500 million shares traded, marking Nasdaq's second-largest debut volume. Investors, haunted by missing Nvidia's rise, now eye Anthropic and OpenAI. Experts compare this hype to 'buying a lottery ticket' for a shot at transformative tech.
2First-day buying caution
Financial advisor Jeff Barnett warns against IPO day-one purchases. Despite SpaceX's 19% pop, its 95x sales multiple raises concerns. Historical data shows median IPOs drop 26% after three years, with early winners rarely becoming long-term champions.
3Private vs public value creation
Wellington Management's Matt Witheiler notes companies create value pre-IPO but public markets still offer growth. Since Apple first crossed $1T in 2018, 16 companies joined the club—with Nvidia nearing $5T, proving public markets' enduring potential.
4Revenue-focused evaluation
OpenAI's $25B and Anthropic's $47B annualized revenues contrast sharply with dot-com era 'eyeball metrics.' Witheiler emphasizes: 'When customers open wallets for transformative tech, that's real.' Market size must be 'absolutely unbounded' to justify valuations.
5Prospectus literacy gap
Renaissance Capital's Avery Marquez finds most retail investors skip S-1 filings. SpaceX's prospectus reveals Musk's Mars colony shares aren't performance-based—critical context missing from headlines. Governance details like super-voting shares hide in plain sight.
6Long-term infrastructure plays
Osterweis Capital's Bryan Wong advises investing in 'picks and shovels' providers. Data shows patient investors in Moderna achieved top-5 returns among 1,020 biotech IPOs (1980-2024), proving transformative winners often emerge years after debut hype fades.
Original article: Fortune | FORTUNE — SpaceX sonrası yatırımcıların yeni hedefi: Antropik ve OpenAI