Global Cooling Electricity Demand Set for Massive Surge by 2040
Cooling systems will soon consume double the electricity of data centers and EVs combined.
1Rapid Cooling Demand Growth
Electricity demand from cooling systems is projected to increase by 80% over the next 15 years. This surge will significantly outpace the power requirements of electric vehicles and data centers. Currently, cooling accounts for 2,800 TWh of global electricity, representing 7% of total consumption and 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
2Drivers of Energy Consumption
The primary factors fueling this demand include rising income levels in developing nations and expanded floor space in new construction projects. Additionally, higher global average temperatures are forcing more individuals to adopt air conditioning to manage heat. This trend is creating a cycle where cooling needs exacerbate the very climate issues they address.
3Regional Disparities in Growth
While North America expects a modest 5% increase in cooling demand by 2040, other regions face explosive growth. Forecasts indicate that demand will triple in the Indian Subcontinent and quadruple in South East Asia. These regions are becoming the new epicenters for energy consumption as urban populations expand and living standards rise.
4Comparison to Other Sectors
Cooling systems are currently the fastest-growing source of energy demand within the buildings sector. By 2035, cooling will represent 13% of global electricity demand. The projected electricity requirement for these systems will be double the combined demand associated with both electric vehicle charging infrastructure and the world's growing data center capacity.
5Climate Policy and Targets
The Global Cooling Pledge, established at COP28, aims to reduce cooling-related emissions by 68% by 2050. A key component of this initiative is improving the average efficiency of new air conditioning units by 50% by 2030. These targets are central to discussions at the upcoming COP31 summit regarding global energy transition strategies.
6Grid Decarbonization Challenges
Despite ongoing efforts to decarbonize power grids, cooling emissions are expected to fall by only 40% from 2022 levels. The rapid rise in demand is currently offsetting many of the efficiency gains achieved through technological advancements. This creates a complex challenge for policymakers attempting to balance energy reliability with strict climate goals.
7Urban Cooling Vulnerabilities
The reliance on fossil fuels for air conditioning is particularly problematic in densely populated built-up areas. During recent summer heatwaves, the UK experienced a 300% year-on-year increase in requests for home air conditioning installations. This trend highlights the growing urban cooling gap and the urgent need for more sustainable infrastructure solutions.
8Future Adaptation and Planning
Managing the physical risks associated with climate change requires businesses to move beyond simple risk assessments. Organizations are now focusing on prioritizing adaptation measures and integrating these findings into long-term investment planning. The Third Annual Cooling Ministerial on 16 November will further outline progress toward meeting international cooling efficiency and emission targets.
Original article: edie — Global Cooling Electricity Demand Set for Massive Surge by 2040