China Proposes Export Curbs on Solar, AI, and Biotech Technologies
New draft regulations target 40 key technologies to safeguard national security and interests.
1Draft Plan Announcement
China announced a draft plan on October 16, 2026, to restrict exports of 40 cutting-edge technologies. The Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology issued Announcement No. 48, targeting specific advancements in AI, biomedicine, and photovoltaics. This move aims to prevent risks related to technology proliferation and potential national security threats.
2Solar Manufacturing Restrictions
The plan includes 12 photovoltaic technologies, covering polysilicon production, wafer manufacturing, and solar-cell manufacturing. While most solar exports remain free, next-generation technologies like perovskite and tandem solar-cell modules face a total export ban. Additionally, polysilicon engineering involving production lines with at least 30,000 tonnes annual output capacity will face strict export limitations.
3AI and Biotech Controls
China is regulating 23 key AI technologies, including foundation models, intelligent agents, and computing clusters. Specific AI tools capable of generating or mutating malicious code are prohibited to prevent targeting of critical infrastructure. Furthermore, certain platforms related to cell and gene therapy in the biomedicine sector are now subject to complete export bans.
4Impact on Indian Manufacturing
Indian solar manufacturers may face significant licensing delays due to these new controls. Santosh Pai of the Institute of Chinese Studies notes that domestic capacity expansion targets, specifically those exceeding 15 GW, could be hindered. Chinese firms now face constraints in undertaking solo investments, joint ventures, or licensing deals with their Indian counterparts.
5Rationale for Export Curbs
The Ministry of Commerce stated that these technologies are increasingly applied in sensitive fields like aerospace, defense, and unmanned systems. By implementing these controls, China intends to safeguard national security interests. Officials emphasized that the regulations align with international practices, ensuring that sensitive technological advancements remain under human control and prevent misuse.
6Open-Source AI Exemptions
Despite the new restrictions, China remains committed to an open-source AI innovation ecosystem. Projects already in the public domain through academic papers or open-source publication are generally exempt from these export controls. Additionally, overseas chip fabrication activities will be eligible for facilitation measures, maintaining a degree of openness for global technological cooperation.
7Strategic Security Objectives
The government aims to prevent malicious actors from acquiring technologies that could threaten national or human security. By regulating specific high-output production lines and advanced AI models, China seeks to maintain control over its technological assets. The policy distinguishes between sensitive dual-use technologies and those that remain freely exportable for standard international trade.
8Future Market Implications
The implementation of Announcement No. 48 marks a shift in how China manages its high-tech export landscape. Countries attempting to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains, such as India, must now navigate potential delays in technology transfers. The global tech industry will likely face increased scrutiny regarding cross-border licensing and joint venture agreements.